There are no eye ctachers from yesterdays card though I will remind you of previous postings on Marcus Botti as a trainer to watch for a punt and he came good yesterday with a newcomer at Wolverhampton - very impressive the way this yard can illustrate its ability to place and punt an animal An interesting maiden which should throw up winners. There was support for OGARITMO 9/4 did touch 11/4 and 2/1 and she did it well after travelling strongly. Out of a half-sister to the smart and durable Quito, she is not very big but may be able to build on this. so I should advise those who don't have Botti marked up in analyser to do so - he has a fine punting statistic.
Todays stuff is pretty poor fare and wont interest me a lot but will be looking for a big run from Miss Abbey for the Sayers Mother Daughter team (she does have another runner today at catterick but Emma has ignored Front Rank in the 2.20 and has her first ride on Miss Abbey in the 2.50.
This mares race is just up her street - a lovely mare who likes to front run (has one of those awkward looking front leg action) -that's the mare not the jock. Went well over her first fence attempts last time but was an eye catcher on good to soft ground over the tuffer track at Carlisle over 2m3f http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,469228,00.html - this was her best performance by far and she was clean and neat but the hill and the distance beat her - I expect a very good performance today has dropped to a very winnable 86 mark with a very valuable 7lbs claim. Diane Sayer has a good strike rate this track and the early 16/1 has dropped top 12/1 at time of writing - should go very short in running and am on BTL
Result -- did not figure at all and there were no signs that the horse did other than lag around the back so the stable did nothing to show this to be other than run of the mill
good luck today
Bob
Tuesday 28 February 2012
Monday 27 February 2012
Nag Me suggestions from yesterday 260212
Merry Vick fontwell hunter chase 260212 Merry Vic ran a stormer on this rules debut considering it was his return from a 686-day layoff. However, he is 9-13 in points and has some decent form in that sphere, particularly his beating of The Midnight Club back in 2007. He´ll need to time to get over this, but looks a shoo-in for something similar in the coming week
Pensnett Bay Towcester Towcester 260212 brilliant front runner took them along at a fair clip but kept it up well, saw off his rivals one by one and then held off a strong challenge from Rebel Swing close home. He´s a progressive sort at the right end of the handicap.
Castle Wings 2nd to paddy Pub but only in a photo 3miles 260212 closing fast Castle Wings just failed. He was closing the gap all the way from the final hurdle and is obviously still well handicapped. He hardly ever runs a bad race.
Utopian a brilliant and easy bumper winner for Nick Gifford has been won by some smart prospects and UTOPIAN ran out a very easy winner on this British debut for a yard that won this in 2010. The ex-French winner landed a race working out nicely on his debut over 1m4f at Vichy last May and, despite reportedly not being a flashy worker at home, was well backed for this first outing since. His rider gave up the outside to no-one and he proved keen as a result, pulling his way into a handy position. That could easily have blunted his finishing effort, but he cantered away from his rivals up the home straight and won with his head firmly in his chest. The winner of this event last year went on to finish second in the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival and this 4yo would be well worth his place in such a race, but his trainer later added an easy surface is important to his cause. He could well be put away now as a result, but is a must to follow whatever the outcome.
Pensnett Bay Towcester Towcester 260212 brilliant front runner took them along at a fair clip but kept it up well, saw off his rivals one by one and then held off a strong challenge from Rebel Swing close home. He´s a progressive sort at the right end of the handicap.
Castle Wings 2nd to paddy Pub but only in a photo 3miles 260212 closing fast Castle Wings just failed. He was closing the gap all the way from the final hurdle and is obviously still well handicapped. He hardly ever runs a bad race.
Utopian a brilliant and easy bumper winner for Nick Gifford has been won by some smart prospects and UTOPIAN ran out a very easy winner on this British debut for a yard that won this in 2010. The ex-French winner landed a race working out nicely on his debut over 1m4f at Vichy last May and, despite reportedly not being a flashy worker at home, was well backed for this first outing since. His rider gave up the outside to no-one and he proved keen as a result, pulling his way into a handy position. That could easily have blunted his finishing effort, but he cantered away from his rivals up the home straight and won with his head firmly in his chest. The winner of this event last year went on to finish second in the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival and this 4yo would be well worth his place in such a race, but his trainer later added an easy surface is important to his cause. He could well be put away now as a result, but is a must to follow whatever the outcome.
Sunday 26 February 2012
Nag Me Alerts Sunday 26th
Poor nag me call today though there are short priced animals that I really don't have my usual confidence in
- 'Shot From The Hip (GER)' is running in the 2.55pm at Naas Def is a class animal and the predicted soft going will only help it Punchestown Grade 1 novice hurdle winner had stepped up on his debut effort over fences when dropped down to 2m1f at Fairyhouse but seemed lost at sea last time month. He was tackling this longer trip for the first time, but the Arkle and Jewson entry struggled to get home after holding every chance approaching the second-last. Grade 2 today and this drop down to 2m4f does not seem beyond him quoted 9/4 against Rathlin (8/15) who ran and won a non event leading all the way any return to Shot From the Hip form over hdles will see him home.
- Result 2nd to a bloody good horse and needs further
- 'Third Intention (IRE)' is running in the 3.40pm at Fontwell Park and will go off favourite in a decent field has won in a small field, will enjoy the drying ground and tongue-tie a notable new addition; has to be taken very seriously.Its poor showing at Newbury against Zarkandar
- Result - won without sweat
More interest will be for The Towcester card where the going is predicted good to soft
Great Hero run at Uttoxeter convinced me he needs the stiffer test on offer at this track and Wayne hutchinson booking for its first chase at 3.50 makes it even more interesting on this ground - this will be my most positive vibe for you today - at time of posting its drifting out to 16/1 but any inwards move will be very positive from a yard that likes to have a bet
Result third but well backed and expected to run well will do better
Result third but well backed and expected to run well will do better
I will be keeping my eyes open for two longshots under gillies 14.50 Lord Kennedy
(4th) bugger
(4th) bugger
and 16.55 Rif who is an inigma of a horse that shows plenty of talent but also an unwillingness to go through with it . Out with the washing at the moment but again a stable that likes a punt and should be watched for such
result what a quirky bugger he is went down to the start at Mch speedd and tried to run the same in the race went from 28s to 4s in running and so easy to make a lay he was never going to last home
result what a quirky bugger he is went down to the start at Mch speedd and tried to run the same in the race went from 28s to 4s in running and so easy to make a lay he was never going to last home
good Luck today will hopefully be on the wall at Facebook Timeform radio for any of your thoughts
anyone who wants to contribute to this blog is very welcome - please let me know on the Email roberttaylor54@sky.com
be good be luck - be seeing you
Bob
Sunday racing!
Will be on the timeform wall and continuing my parade observations+Inrunning bets with detailed PL. Hope you come over and put up your picks. Maybe we can also open chat window to share observations in the parade before the race and discuss it? I didnt see your chat window in facebook ( but have you on my friends list) when you were online? If you have other things to do today, fine, no problem, i just will look if you are there when racing is on. Otherwise I wish you a great sunday mate.
Cheers rade!
Cheers rade!
Saturday 25 February 2012
LONGSHOT - newcastle 4.00 25 02 12
Campbell Gillies one of my favourite jocks has only one ride today in the 4,00 at Newcastle Rock Relief for Chris Grant - was a staying on 4th to DontPaytheferryman at Muss last time in a seller when ridden by Tom Obrien - big and burly was never able to get into the race and was allowed to lob along with the suspicion he was there for the outing Campbell has a strike rate of 9% for this trainer and this is only his third ride at Newcastle -- but still will be trying my luck with an 80/20 place win punt at the current price.
good luck to all today
Bob
1 Agent Archie 1/2F
2 Rock Relief 33/1
3 Master Murphy 9/1
Rock Relief, just 51 on the level, had finished a well-beaten fourth in a selling hurdle at Musselburgh on his first completed start. He came from mid-field to finish clear second best. This was obviously a vastly improved effort but whether it flatters him remains to be seen.he will def travel well over further these conditions
good luck to all today
Bob
1 Agent Archie 1/2F
2 Rock Relief 33/1
3 Master Murphy 9/1
Comment ----- AGENT ARCHIE, rated 88 on the Flat, had accounted for a subsequent winner with plenty in hand on his hurdling debut at Ludlow in November. He attacked hishurdle and after seeing off his sole challenger he scored easily, eased down. He is clearly useful and Aintree will suit his style of running better than Cheltenham where he is a Supreme Novices´ Hurdle entry.
Rock Relief, just 51 on the level, had finished a well-beaten fourth in a selling hurdle at Musselburgh on his first completed start. He came from mid-field to finish clear second best. This was obviously a vastly improved effort but whether it flatters him remains to be seen.he will def travel well over further these conditions
Nag Me horses running today 25 0212
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ummm well outclassed in this field but jumped for fun and will go in for sure this term
Racecourse | Trainer | Horse | Age | Form | Odds | |||
6 | 93-2312 | SP |  | |||||
Your Notes for: T J Nagle-Jr (IRE) | Manage alert Well if your not taking the hint from Betfolio free blog your losing great information -- this one is the second winner from three trainers highlighted on their to follow listNote Created: 22 Feb 2012 | 20:58 one of the trainers to follow won with the bishop loony punchestown 220212- from betfolio guys | ||||||||
The Racing Plus Chase Kempton 25 February 2012
The Racing Plus Chase (formerly the Racing Post Chase) takes place at Kempton today Saturday, the 25th February. In the past decade some very significant trends have emerged that should help pinpoint this year’s winner.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-2-8
7yo: 2-4-23
8yo: 5-6-37
9yo: 1-4-28
10yo: 1-4-29
11yo: 0-1-15
12yo+: 1-2-4
Horses aged 6 to 8 have a combined record of 7-12-68
Horses aged 9 or older have a combined record of 3-11-76
8yos have the best record winning 5 of last 10, including 4 of the last 5.
All 3 winners aged older than 8 had previously won a graded chase.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-12 or more: 8-15-64
Horses carrying 10-11 or lower: 2-8-80
8 of 10 winners carried 10-12+ and so are heavily favoured.
Top Weight: P7P11231043 (3-3-11) have gained 3 wins and 3 places from their 11 runners in the past 10 years.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 141 or higher: 9-11-65
Horses rated 142 or lower: 1-12-79
The last 9 winners were officially rated 141 or higher.
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won last time out
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR of last year on last outing
7 of 10 winners had run in past 30 days
9 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 4 chases since August
6 of 10 winners were course winners (other 4 were having first run here)
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 5F+
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions having first try at 3M or further)
7 of 10 winners (last 5) had run in 7 or fewer handicaps chases
10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 3 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won at class 2 or better
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a listed or graded chase
Other Races
Highest placed finisher from last year's race: 7220326 (0-4-7)
Betfair Graduation Chase winner (Sarando): 4 (0-1-1)
Aintree Bowl winner (Nacarat): 4 (0-0-1)
William Hill - Home of Betting H'cap Chase winner (Fuity O'Rooney): 6450 (0-0-4)
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in Masters Handicap Chase last time, finishing 17
2 of 10 winners ran in the Welsh National, finishing 66
2 of 10 winners ran in Atlantic Spinal research Gold Cup, finishing F2
Racing Tactics
8 of 10 winners led or chased leaders
Trainers
Philip Hobbs (3-3-12) has won the race three times in the past 10 years and 6 of his 12 runners have made the frame.
Paul Nicholls (1-4-11) has seen 5 of his 11 runners make the frame while Tom George (1-2-4) saddled Nacarat to win it in 2009 and finish 2nd & 3rd in past 2 runnings.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-6) and Nicky Henderson (1-0-8) are the other two trainers with entries that have won the race in the past decade.
Colin Tizzard (0-2-2) saddled 2 of the 4 placed finishers last year and Venetia Williams (0-2-10) has also filled a couple of places since 2002.
Price
10 of 10 winners were priced between 4/1 and 11/1
Clearly this is a race where you should be sticking with the market principals with no winner going off bigger than 11/1 in the past decade and 8 of 10 winners coming from the first 4 in the betting.
Horses priced 11/1 or below: 10-11-62 (+17.50)
Horses priced 12/1 or higher: 0-12-82 (-82.00)
Favourites (2-2-11) have gained just 2 wins in the past decade, giving a level stakes loss of 2.00.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 6 to 8
· Carrying 10-12+ (top weight does well)
· Officially rated 141 or higher
· Won and posted their highest RPR last time out
· Run in 2 to 5 chases this season
· Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases, winning 1 to 3
· Won a class 2 race or higher
· Won or placed in a listed or graded chase
· Won over 3M+ (or having first try over 3M+)
· Tends to race prominently
· Course winner (or having first course start)
· Trained by Philip Hobbs, Paul Nicholls or Colin Tizzard
· Priced 11/1 or below
The Betfred Eider Handicap Chase 25 feb 2012
The Betfred Eider Handicap Chase, which takes place at Newcastle on today Saturday 25th February, 3.25 is run over a marathon trip of 4M 1F and is one of the highlight of Newcastle’s national hunt season. In 2008 Comply Or Die won it en route to bagging the Grand National. Last year, very testing ground meant there were only 3 finishers, hopefully it’s not quite so soft this time around.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings (1999-2011):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-1-1
7yo: 0-3-11
8yo: 3-4-25
9yo: 4-5-39
10yo: 2-5-44
11yo+: 1-3-20
12yo+: 0-3-14
Horses aged 6 to 9 have a combined record of 7-13-76
Horses aged 10+ have a combined record of 3-11-78, though all 3 of their wins came on heavy ground. Older chasers seem more able to handle really testing conditions, so take the going into consideration when considering whether to favour older or younger horses.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 11-0 or more: 8-9-53
Horses carrying 10-13 or less: 2-15-101
Clearly horses carrying 11-0+ are preferred having won the last 8 renewals
Top Weight: 856P31P4P11P5P (3-2-14) have accounted for 3 of the last 6 winners.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 123 or higher: 9-9-73
Horses rated 122 or lower: 1-15-81
The last 8 winners have been officially rated 123 or higher and 5 of the last 6 winners were rated 131 to 139
Recent/Past Form
8 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on their last completed start
9 of 10 winners had run in the last 30 days
5 of 10 winners won on 1 of last 2 starts (3 of 5 exceptions finishing 2nd last time out)
10 of 10 winners had won over 3M 1F+
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in a chase over 3M+
9 of 10 winners had run in 5 to 11 handicap chases (2 exceptions had run in 0 or 1 h'cap chase)
10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or higher chase
7 of 10 winners had won a chase worth 20K+
10 of 10 winners had fallen no more than once (8 had never fallen over fences)
0 from 10 winners had won at the track (only 3 had previously run at Newcastle)
All 10 winners were having their first start in the race.
Other Races
North Yorkshire Grand National winner (Posh Bird): 15 (1-0-2)
Punchestown Grand National Trial winner (Portrait King): P (0-0-1)
Axminster Devon Marathon Handicap Chase winner (Drybrook Bedouin): 6 (0-0-1)
2 of 10 winners ran in 3M1F Nov H’cap Chase at Scottish National meeting, finishing P1
2 of 10 winners had run in the previous Scottish National, finishing 70
2 of 10 winners had run in the Becher Chase, finishing F4
2 of 10 winners ran in Bet At Victor Chandler Chase at Cheltenham on NYD, finishing P7
Both Irish-trained winners had run in the Thyestes Chase & Paddy Power H’cap Chase that season
Racecourse Tactics
6 of 10 winners (last 3) led or raced prominently
4 of 10 winners were held up
Trainers
Ferdy Murphy (1-4-10) trained the winner in 2001 and has seen 5 of his 10 runners make the frame in past 10 renewals.- NEGUS DE BEAUMONT
Nick Williams (1-0-2) won the race in 2006 and is only other trainer with entry to have won it since 1999.PRESENT M´LORD
Nigel Twiston-Davies (0-3-4) has seen 3 of his 4 runners makes the frame while Kate Walton (0-2-5) has saddled Morgan Be to be placed in last 2 runnings.
Sue Smith (0-0-9) has not had much luck in this, seeing her last 9 runners finish unplaced.
Irish-trained runners (2-1-9) have won 2 of the last 10 renewals from approximately 6% of the runners.
Price
8 of 10 winners came from the first 6 in the betting and were 11/1 or shorter
Companero won the race at 16/1 last year, though it was a slightly freak result owing to the very soft ground, in which only 3 finished.
Favourites (1-4-11) have gained just 1 win in the past 10 runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 5.00.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
- Aged 6 to 9 (unless it’s heavy ground)
- Carrying 11-0+ (top weight does well)
- Officially rated 123 or higher (ideally rated 131 to 139)
- Finished in the first 4 on last start in past 30 days
- Won one of last two starts
- Run in 5 to 11 handicap chases
- Won over 3M 1F+
- Won a class 3 or higher chase worth 20K+
- Ran in a chase at 2011 Scottish National meeting
- Having first run in an Eider Chase
- Trained by Ferdy Murphy or in Ireland
- Priced 11/1 or shorter
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