Saturday 30 June 2012

Northumberland Plate 30th June 2012


First run in 1883, the John Smith's Northumberland Plate takes place today 30th June  at 3.20 and is the highlight of the Newcastle meeting. This class 2 handicap is limited to 20 runners and is run over 2 miles. Lower weights that have proven stamina are favoured.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: The going is Heavy heavy heavy so trends have to be looked at carefully 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 0-1-2
4yo: 4-10-64
5yo: 0-8-45
6yo: 4-7-41
7yo+: 2-5-36
Horses aged 3 to 5 have a combined record of 4-19-111
Horses aged 6+ have a combined record of 6-12-77
Older horses have held a slight edge recently, with horses aged 6+ winning 3 of last 4.

Weights
Horses carrying 8-12 or more: 1-11-64
Horses carrying 8-11 or less: 9-20-124
The last 9 winners carried 8-11 or less
Top weight: 00000000306 (0-1-11)
Penalty: 8403008056 (0-2-10)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 94 or higher: 1-15-77
Horses rated 84 or less: 0-2-17
The last 9 winners were officially rated 85 to 93

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 last time out
6 of 10 winners posted a career high RPR last time out
4 of 10 winners had their last start in a hurdles race
10 of 10 winners had run at least twice (flat & jumps) that year
10 of 10 winners had run in last 55 days
9 of 10 winners had won over 1M 6F+ (exception had won over 1M4F)
8 of 10 winners had gained highest grade flat win at class 2 or 3 (2 exceptions had won a class 4 handicap on flat & won class 1 or 2 hurdle)
8 of 10 winners were placed in class 2 or higher
7 of 10 winners had won or placed in a race worth 34K+

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Tominator): 086 (0-0-3)
Betfred "The Bonus King" Handicap winner (Gulf Of Naples): 302 (0-2-3)
November Handicap winner (Zuider Zee): 4 (0-1-1)
Queen's Prize Handicap winner (Thimaar): 308 (0-1-3)
Chester Cup winner (Il De Re): 983006 (0-1-6)
Mallard Stakes winner (Old Hundred): 8 (0-0-1)
Piper-Heidsieck "Rare" Handicap winner (Cosimo De Medici): 07 (0-0-2)
Cheap Broadband @ poptelecom.co.uk Handicap winner (Mount Athos): 00 (0-0-2)
2 of 10 winners ran in the Ascot Stakes last time, finishing 25
2 of 10 winners ran in Cheap Broadband @ poptelecom.co.uk H’cap, finishing 86

Trainers
George Moore (1-2-3) has gained 1 win and 2 places in the past 10 years.
Mick Channon (1-1-2) and Amanda Perrett (1-1-7) have each saddled a winner and placed finisher since 2002.
Reg Hollinstead (1-0-1) and Donald McCain (1-0-2) have trained the last 2 winners.
Alan Swinbank (0-3-4) & Richard Fahey (0-2-7) have both had multiple places in last 10 years.
Robert Mills (0-1-1) and John Queally (0-1-1) have both seen their one runner make the frame.
Irish-trained runners (1-1-6) have produced 1 win & 1 place from just 6 representatives.
Mark Johnston (0-0-10) last won the race in 1994 but since 2000 all 14 of his runners have finished unplaced.
Goldie has his animals in great form for distance races this term and both Icon Dream and Merchant of Dubai

Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 7: 5-16-70
Horses drawn 8 to 14: 3-7-70
Horses drawn 15 or higher: 2-8-48
Ground conditions appear to make a difference. Low draws on softer and high draws on firmer seem to be favourable.
On good or softer:
Horses drawn 1 to 8: 5-11-62
Horses drawn 9 or higher: 2-10-71
On good to firm or firm ground:
Horses drawn 1 to 8: 0-6-28
Horses drawn 9 or higher: 3-4-27

Racing Style
6 of 10 winners led or raced prominently in first 7 BUT because of the ground don't take this as gospel for todays ground this is the time to start laying off your horse if it has got caught way back! 2 of last 3 winners made all to win, 4 winners who were held up did so on ground softer than good.
Price
Longer prices have dominated this in recent years with 7 of last 8 winners going off 14/1 or bigger, including two 33/1 winners and a 25/1 shot last year.
Favourites (1-3-11) have won the race just once in the last 10 years and giving a level stakes loss of 4.00.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
·         Carrying 8-11 or less
·         Officially rated 85 to 93
·         Finished in the first 5 in a class 2 or higher last time
·         Ran in Ascot Stakes or in a handicap hurdle last time
·         Ran in last 55 days
·         Ran at least twice in 2012 
·         Won over 1M 6F+
·         Won a class 2 or 3 race (but no higher)
·         Drawn low on good or softer/drawn high on firmer
·         Trained by George Moore, Mick Channon or Alan Swinbank
·         Priced 14/1 or higher

 There is plenty to like about this race today and soft ground sires such as Motivator (Montivado) Montjeau (Montaff)  High Chapperal (High  Office who was 8th last year ) (lexington Bay) are worthy of a peek as are newcastle swingers over jumps such as Crackentorp 

Am Attracted at this stage to Fahey yard High Office currently big price at 33/1  who ran a stormer on unsuitable ground last time at Newmarket traveled well and ran right up to form behind a couple of younger, less-exposed rivals.is still within 3lbs of his winning mark lightly weighted 6yr old  off 8-06 and bred for soft ground and is 2lbs better in today
Crackentorp at 7 stays forever and has form on soft ground at distance plus and the darkest horse in the race is French Hollow  who is 2lbs out of the handicap and though may find this to quick a turn around since Sunday last will think he has a feather on its back with a very good claimer taking the 5lbs off as well --

 good luck hope its not going to be as grueling as Anticipated and they all come back sound 


Result - Not quite as open as usual, with the ground ruling out a few. Understandably the pace was quite steady.

ILE DE RE completed the prestigious Chester Cup/Northumberland Plate double in gritty fashion, benefiting from a fine ride by Jim Crowley, who wisely moved him prominent down the back. Although up 8lb for his Chester victory, these conditions weren´t a problem, and with stamina assured, it was no surprise to see him repel all challengers. He´s a smart staying handicapper when conditions are in his favour and he can rank higher yet when returning to hurdles later in the year.

Crackentorp, well beaten in this in 2010, has yet to win beyond 1m4f on the Flat, but he came into the race following a recent win at his beloved York and, having held a prominent position throughout, stuck on really well to record a career best. His trainer is in cracking form at present.

Icon Dream, seventh from the same mark last year, had been off 11 months, but has gone well fresh in the past, and he ran right up to his best on this first start for Jim Goldie.

French Hollow, runner-up over 2m2f at Pontefract six days earlier, did best of those coming from off the pace, running really well considering he was 2lb wrong.

Montaff was 1llb lower than when runner-up in 2011, but he hasn´t been able to match that form since, and the ground was testing enough for him.

High Office was never involved, but did plug on late, just ahead of The Betchworth Kid, who was tired.

There was always a good chance this was going to come too soon for Gulf Of Naples after his huge effort in the Gold Cup. He was never able to get into the race following a slow start and is due to race off 6lb higher in future.

not a great result though the selections ran well enough to say they should still be marked up as improver's for the future and the stats stood up significantly again





Thursday 28 June 2012

marathon 3.30 Newcastle 280612

Today the ground is the thing and already at Newcastle its predicted soft  Officials  haven't ruled out an inspection before today's meeting if weather deteriorates further
  I have taken the opportunity to illustrate how i go about analysing distance races starting off with past winners ----




YEARWINNERAGEWGTSPTRAINERJOCKEYRPR
2011John Forbes99-09/4FBrian EllisonTom Eaves78
2010Lady Eclair49-75/4FMark JohnstonJoe Fanning94
2009Markington68-35/2FPeter BowenWilliam Carson72
2008Winged D'Argent79-56/1Bernard LlewellynNeil Callan85
2007Nero West68-34/1Ian SemplePaul Fessey74
2006Mister Arjay68-69/2Brian EllisonTom Eaves68
2005Argentum48-68/1Lady HerriesRobert Winston65




John Forbes winning it last year (we napped it that day)returns for another crack and carries 6lbs less was run at a decent early pace. Things slowed up a bit nearing the final turn and the first two home made their way more towards the middle of the track in the home straight. Sound enough form.  had caught the eye at York two runs back and confirmed himself back in top form when winning comfortably on quick ground at Doncaster 11 days earlier. That was in an apprentice handicap and so he was off the same mark and followed up with another ready effort.
This 10-y-o loves it when the mud is flying so this  surface will be no bother, and it wouldn´t be that surprising to see him run a big race today but his form has not matched last years coming into the race even with this drop down the handicap if it goes heavy ground however there is a health warning and am reluctant to take the present price and think it will drift - anything less than heavy brings it back into focus though its form does not match that at which it came into the race last year  


there are three horses who will appreciate ground  going  heavy  


 Boston Blue Bred from Halling has won on soft over hdles 2miles and was 3rd off this mark on soft ground at goodwood 2miles November 2010  Downside trainer jock horse have run round here Last run was excellent and in good nick and 2lbs in on its best winning mark


Bollin Felix has won this track heavy 2miles hdles is a must have over hdles these conditions and has a 7lbs claimer today and well in on its flat form by 9lbs (excluding the claim) can be expected to lead and a very good BTL horse

Pokefulham interesting horse from Goldie  who has run this track twice and loves heavy ground is  CDG winner - why does Lee not ride it today? Tudhope  has the most experience of the riders in the race this track may be the reason its its return to heavy ground means its well enough in and got this mark in my private handicap rating its win here two races ago


A return to form is clearly expected from Boss's Destination  judged on the morning money which has forced his odds into 7-2 from 13-2. it has to be Swinbank stable confidence certainly can do the 2miles with ease and performed well on poly track this distance  is 67% this distance for 4 runs and is 4lbs in on its best win mark id bred from Dubai Destination and will handle ground well enough though has not been as good on turf and poly and if the ground does go heavy looks a late lay to me on the form book despite the respect I have for the yard when it backs one


IF the going remains soft and IF this was a hdle race ! it would be a one horse event for Rock Relief who loves the track distance and going soft or heavy  is 90% success for three runs over hdles here and is a tuff lil nut to crack 9his hdles are iffy to say the least) and all the stats say this is the most likely profile horse for me from out of the handicap has no weight and will think hes running free having carried 11-05  it would be a wonderful win in memeory of Campbell Gillies who rode this one to wins despite its iffy hdles and rode out for Grant - it can swing off the bridle has no weight and the dark one in the race 


 So that's how I approach a race in the morning - it takes longer to write up than scanning a computer'ised  interactive form book and notes - but have enjoyed writing it up and will look forwards to any comment  and anyone else on the site giving me an insight to their analysis.


 Cheers  Bob




 result --- They went a sound gallop in the very testing underfoot conditions and just the first three home got seriously involved once in line for home.

POKFULHAM, allowed to set his own pace, was 11lb higher than his all the way success over the C&D in May.He had all but the placed horses beaten off turning for home. Narrowly headed by the runner-up inside the final furlong the photo went his way, but both the first two had a tough race here.

Rock Relief, revived over hurdles since joining this yard, had to race from 9lb out of the handicap. He likes soft ground and looked to have been brought with a winning challenge only to miss out right on the line. He will go up at least 9lb for this.

 did well on the race

Pokfulham 6/1 
Rock Relief 9/2
Bollin Felix 5/1 
7 ran Distances: nse, 9l, 35l
TIME 3m 56.48s (slow by 29.48s)
Jockey: Daniel Tudhope
Trainer: Jim Goldie
toteswingers 1&2 £4.20, 1&3 £5.10, 2&3 £7.20 WIN £4.70 PL £1.70, £3.50
Ex £28.40
CSF £31.53
TRICAST £143.16










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Tuesday 26 June 2012

Campbell Gillies R.I.P

Campbell Gillies at Lucinda Russell's yard - 2011

Jockey Campbell Gillies dies in holiday tragedy

OH MY GOD one of the nicest and talented young rider you could ever wish to meet - his head was down with the loss of his favorite horse. but he shrugged it off and was riding out with a bright future a grin and a good word for everyone This has hit me hard. Anyone who has ever met Campbell will be in a state of shock at this news  


Monday 18 June 2012

The Diamond Jubilee Stakes (formerly the Cork And Orrery)


The Diamond Jubilee Stakes (formerly the Cork And Orrery) is the second group 1 sprint of the meeting. The race is run over a furlong further than Tuesday’s 5F King’s Stand, which has often been a good pointer to this, though everything will be looking to beat the great Black Caviar, who must overcome the poor record of female horses in this race.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 2-6-31
4yo: 4-7-40
5yo: 1-3-37
6yo+: 3-4-60
Ages of winners have been fairly well spread out, though younger horses have done better recently with last 4 winners all being aged 3 or 4.
3yos won the race in 2008 & 2009 and what they had in common was they both finished in the first 2 in a 2yo sprint at Royal Ascot and finished in the first 2 in group 1 sprint as a juvenile.

Gender
Fillies & mares (0-3-19) have a poor record in this race, gaining no wins and 3 places from 19 runners, which included 7 runners priced less than 7/1.
4 females were sent off favourite or joint favourite:
2011 Bewitched 14th of 16 @ 3/1F
2010 Fleeting Spirit 4th of 24 @ 13/2 JF
2007 Miss Andretti 15th of 21 @ 2/1F
2003 Airwave 2nd of 17 @ 11/8F

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had run in last 45 days
10 of 10 winners had won at listed level or above (7 of last 9 won a group race)
5 of 10 winners had already won that year (other 5 had run no more than twice)
9 of 10 winners had won over 6F (exception had only run over 5F)
6 of 10 winners ran at the previous year's Royal Ascot (5 of those finished in first 2)
4 of 10 winners ran in the King's Stand earlier that week
8 of 10 winners had finished in the first 5 in a group 1 over 5F or 6F (both exceptions had yet to run in a group 1 sprint)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Society Rock): 70 (0-0-2)
Record of 2nd, 3rd and 4th from previous year: 3061241 (2-2-7)
King's Stand winner: 130 (1-1-3)
Record of horses that placed in Kings Stand: 530043 (0-2-6)
Lightning Stakes winner (Black Caviar): 130 (1-1-3)
Caufield Guineas winner (Helmet): 1 (1-0-1)
Australia Stakes winner (Black Caviar): 1 (1-0-1)
Coventry Stakes winner (Power): 1 (1-0-1)
Patinack Farm Classic winner (Black Caviar): 10 (1-0-2)
Cammidge Trophy winner (The Cheka): 109 (1-0-3)
Temple Stakes winner (Bated Breath): 2 (0-1-1)
Criterium De Maisons-Laffitte winner (Restiadargent): 2 (0-1-1)
Dubai Golden Shaheen winner (Krypton Factor): 3 (0-1-1)
Previous season's Norfolk Stakes winner (Bapak Chinta): 93 (0-1-2)
Wentworth Stakes winner (Sirius Prospect): 2990 (0-1-4)
Bengough Stakes winner (Royal Rock): 207460 (0-1-6)
John Of Gaunt Stakes winner (Pastoral Player): 00 (0-0-2)
Ballycorus Stakes winner (Fire Lily): 80 (0-0-2)
Prix du Gros Chene winner (Wizz Kid): 56 (0-0-2)
Stewards Cup winner (Hoof It): 088 (0-0-3)
Middle Park Stakes winner (Crusade): 950 (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in the King's Stand last time, finishing 1400
3 of 10 winners ran in the Duke Of York, finishing 035
3 of 10 winners ran in the Lightning Stakes, finishing 134
2 of 10 winners ran in the Newmarket H'cap, finishing 63
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's July Cup, finishing 47
2 of 10 winners ran in the Oakleigh Plate, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in the Abernant Stakes, finishing 20

Trainers
British trained runners: 7-13-128
Australian trained: 1-3-9
Hong Kong trained: 1-1-4
Irish trained runners: 1-0-12
American trained: 0-2-4
French trained runners: 0-1-8
Other: 0-0-3
James Fanshawe (1-2-5) saddled Sir Gerry to finish 3rd at 20/1 in 2008 and then had Society Rock finish 2nd at 50/1 and 1st at 25/1 in past 2 renewals.
Aidan O’Brien (1-0-5) trained Starspangledbanner to win it in 2010.
The two Australian trainers with entires have both had one runner in past 10 years. Peter Moody (0-0-1) saddled Magnus to finish 14th in 2007 and Paul Messara (0-0-1) saddled Alverta to finish 14th in 2010.

Draw
Bottom 5 stalls: 3-2-45
Middle stalls: 2-9-63
Top 5 stalls: 4-7-45
Horses drawn in top or bottom 5 stalls have a combined record of 7-9-90, which compares well to horses drawn in the middle of 2-9-68.

Price
No very strong trend on prices but longer priced horses have done well recently 4 of last 6 winners were sent off between 20/1 and 33/1.
Favourites (1-3-11) have gained just 1 win in the past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 6.25.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
·         Colt or gelding (though Black Caviar is no respecter of gender trends)
·         Ran in past 45 days
·         Won over 6F
·         Won a group race
·         Finished in the first 5 in a group 1 sprint
·         Ran in the King’s Stand and/or Duke Of York this year
·         First 4 in Oakleigh Plate, Newmarket H’cap or Lightning Stakes
·         Previously finished in the first 2 at Royal Ascot
·         Drawn in top or bottom 5 stalls



The St James’s Palace Stakes 190612


The St James’s Palace Stakes is one of three group 1 races taking place on day 1 of Royal Ascot, which kicks off on Tuesday 19th June. Run over a mile for 3yos only, it brings together horses that have been running in the different 2000 Guineas races around Europe. Last year this race was won by the mighty Frankel.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
Race for 3yos

Breeding
8 of 10 winners were by a group 1 winner
8 of 10 winners were sired by horse that had won all his races over a mile or shorter (1 exception sired by Giants Causeway, who won this in 2000, and other was by Galileo)
10 of 10 winners were born before 26th April

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won last time out (3 others beaten in French or Irish 2000 Guineas)
7 of 10 winners had won a group 1 (3 exceptions had finished in first 3 in a group 1)
10 of 10 winners had won a group 1 or 2
9 of 10 winners ran in last 30 days
9 of 10 winners won first time out as a 2yo (exception was 2nd)
9 of 10 winners won a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo (exception didn't run in a group 1 or 2 as a 2yo)
2000 Guineas Form
Irish 2000 Guineas winner (Power): 10715111 (5-0-8)
English 2000 Guineas winner (Camelot): 145171 (3-0-6)
Highest placed finisher from English 2000 Guineas: 1145151271 (5-1-10)
French 2000 Guineas winner: 25135 (1-2-5)
Highest placed finisher from French 2000 Guineas: 2521435927 (1-4-10)
8 of 10 winners ran in English 2000 Guineas, finishing 12341531
7 of 10 winners ran in Irish 2000 Guineas last time out, finishing 1021111
2 of 10 winners ran in French 2000 Guineas, finishing 14
9 of 10 winners had finished in first two in Irish, French or English 2000 Guineas (exception was 4th in French 2000)

Other Races
Dewhurst Stakes winner (Parish Hall): 171561 (3-0-6)
Coventry Stakes winner (Power): 2811 (2-1-4)
Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère winner (Dabirsim): 14347 (1-1-5)
National Stakes winner (Power): 1 (1-0-1)
Royal Lodge winner (Daddy Longlegs): 1 (1-0-1)
Richmond Stakes winner (Harbour Watch): 2 (0-1-1)
Blenheim Stakes winner (Born To Sea): 62 (0-1-2)
Prix Djebel winner (French Fifteen): 27 (0-1-2)
Prix de Fontainebleau winner (Dragon Pulse): 52 (0-1-2)
Futurity Stakes winner (Dragon Pulse): 03 (0-1-2)
Free Handicap winner (Telwaar): 05 (0-0-2)
Prix Morny winner (Dabirsim): 45 (0-0-2)
Loughbrown Stakes winner (Requisition): 089 (0-0-3)
4 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 1411
3 of 10 winners ran in the Greenham, finishing 221
3 of 10 winners ran in the Railway Stakes, finishing 131
3 of 10 winners ran in the Coventry Stakes, finishing 611
3 of 10 winners ran in the Prix Morny, finishing 233
2 of 10 winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 21

Trainers
British trained runners: 5-9-53
Irish trained runners: 5-8-31
French trained runners: 0-2-7
German trained runners: 0-1-1
Other: 0-0-2
Aidan O’Brien (4-8-25) has won 4 of the last 10 runnings of this race (including 3 of the last 5). His first string has a record of 4-4-10.
Richard Hannon (1-1-6) and John Oxx (1-0-1) are the only other 2 trainers with an entry this season to have won the race in the past decade.
Nicolas Clement (0-1-1), John Gosden (0-1-3), Brian Meehan (0-1-3) and Michael Stoute (0-1-3) have all had one placed finisher since 2002.

Draw (excluding 2005 when run at York)
Horses drawn 1 to 3: 3-3-27
Horses drawn 4 to 6: 5-4-27
Horses drawn 7 or higher: 2-11-32
No strong trends on the draw.

Price
10 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below
This has not been a race for upsets in the past 10 years with the winner coming from the first 4 in the betting in each of last 10 years and no winner going off bigger than 8/1.
Favourites (7-1-11) have won 7 of the last 10, including the last 4, giving a level stakes profit of 4.13.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
·         Sired by a group 1 winner who’d never won over further than 1M
·         Won first time out & won a group race as a 2yo
·         First 3 in the Morny, Coventry, Dewhurst and/or Railway as 2yo
·         Ran in the past 30 days
·         Won last time out
·         Group 1 winner
·         Finished in the first 2 in Ir/Fr/Eng 2000 Guineas
·         Ran in Irish 2000 Guineas last time out
·         Trained by Aidan O’Brien
·         Priced 8/1 or below (favourite does very well)