Friday, 20 April 2012

Coral Scottish Grand National 2012

A Very good day for the satchel yesterday - lets hope the trends and profiles can bag us some decent priced winners today 

The Coral Scottish Grand National takes place at Ayr tomorrow Saturday 21st April. It is a grade 3 handicap chase, run over 4M ½F. The shape of the race will very much depend on whether Junior, who fell early in the Aintree Grand National, lines up in this. Typically horses that ran in the Aintree showcase struggle if going for this after.

Trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-2-9
7yo: 0-9-35
8yo: 4-7-60
9yo: 2-4-44
10yo: 3-4-48
11yo+: 1-4-41
Horses aged 8 to 10 have won 9 of 10 from approximately 64% of total runners.
In 2009 Hello Bud became the first horse aged over 10 to win the race since 1996. Horses aged 11+ have only made the frame 5 times from 41 runners in the past 10 years.

Breeding  No strong trends on breeding.

Weight 
8 of 10 winners carried 10-6 or less, they represented almost 66% of total runners.
The only 2 winners to carry more than 10-6 to victory were both Irish bred chasers aged 10+ who had posted a career high RPR when winning their previous start.
Top Weight: 751P0P2PP6 (1-1-10) Both top weights to make the frame had previously finished in first 5 in the race.
Horses racing from out of the handicap: 2-11-100
Horses carrying a penalty have gained 2 wins and 2 places from 8 runners, the other 4 all fell or unseated.

Official Ratings  8 of 10 winners were officially rated 143 or lower The 2 winners rated higher than 143 were Grey Abbey, who had won the Grimthorpe last time out and Beshabar, who finished 2nd in the 4M NH Novice Chase at Cheltenham on previous start.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 6 last time (3 won)
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out
10 of 10 winners had run in past 60 days
7 of 10 winners won a chase worth 15K+ (3 exceptions placed in chase worth 45K+)
9 of 10 winners had won a class 2 to 4 chase but no higher (exception won a the grade 2 Future Champions Novice Chase at this meeting 3 years previous)
10 of 10 winners had run 3 to 6 times that season
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was 2nd on only run over 3M+)
8 of 10 winners had run in at least 10 chases (2 exceptions ran in a novice chase at that season's Cheltenham Festival)
6 of 10 winners (last 5) were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
9 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 16 handicap chases (exception making handicap debut)
4 of 10 winners had won at Ayr (4 others were having first course start)
10 of 10 winners had first career run in a bumper or hurdles race

Aintree Festival
In the last 10 years, there have been 28 horses who ran in the Aintree Grand National and then ran in this, none have won and only 1 made the frame
2 of 10 winners ran in a handicap chase at Aintree Festival, finishing 51, however on both occasions there was a 2 week gap between the Aintree and Scottish Nationals

Other Races
Previous season's winner: 642 (0-2-3)
Highest placed finisher from last year's race to return: 666504022 (0-3-9)
Grimthorpe chase winner (Ikorodu Road): U133 (1-2-4)
32Red Casino Beginners' Chase winner (Quentin Collonges): 1 (1-0-1)
Rewards4Racing Handicap Chase winner (Galaxy Rock): 2P (0-1-2)
Previous season's Kim Muir winner (Junior): P (0-0-1)
Eider Chase winner (Portrait King): P6 (0-0-2)
Raceodds Handicap Chase winner (Mostly Bob): PPP (0-0-3)
2 of 10 winners had run in that season's Hennessy Gold Cup, finishing 37
2 of 10 winners ran in the Somerset National last time, finishing 31
2 of 10 winners ran in the Grimthorpe H'cap Chase last time, finishing 16
3 of 10 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival, (2 pulled up in a handicap chase, other 2nd in 4M Novice Chase)

Racing Tactics
6 of 10 winners raced prominently or led
In recent years those horses that have gone from the front have done best in this race as 4 of the last 5 winners led from before halfway.

Price
8 of 10 winners went off 12/1 or bigger
This race has thrown up plenty of shocks recently with 5 of the last 10 winners going off at 18/1 or bigger, including a 66/1 shot winning in 2008.
Favourite (0-4-13) has not won the race since 2000 and show a level stakes loss of 10.00 over the past 10 renewals.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
·         Aged 7 to 10
·         Carrying 10-6 or less
·         Officially rated 143 or lower
·         Run 3 to 6 times this season
·         Finished in the first 6 last time & posted their highest RPR
·         Won over 3M+
·         Won a class 2 to 4 chase (but no higher)
·         Won a chase worth £15K+ (or placed in a chase worth 45K+)
·         Run in at least 10 chases (or ran in novice chase at Cheltenham Festival)
·         Course winner (or having first start at Ayr)
·         Had first career start in a bumper or hurdles race
·         Bypassed 2012 Aintree Festival
·         Finished in first 7 in this season’s Hennessy Gold Cup
·         Ran in the Grimthorpe or Somerset National last time
·         Trained in Great Britain (ideally by A Parker, P Hobbs or T Vaughan)
·         Likes to lead or race prominently
·         Priced 12/1 or above

Well the going is currently good good to soft in places and too many hold their ground - will publish the race page tomorrow morning or late tonight if the forecast is likley to remain constant

 Bob



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