Friday 30 March 2012

The William Hill Lincoln Handicap trends 310312

The William Hill Lincoln Handicap, which will be run at Doncaster on Saturday 31st March, marks the beginning of the British flat turf season. It’s a race steeped in history and is always a lively betting contest, making up the first part of the Spring Double.

Trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
4yo: 6-8-72
5yo: 1-9-67
6yo: 3-6-53
7yo: 0-4-23
8yo+: 0-3-11
4yoS have won 6 of the last 9 runnings
4 to 6 years old have won the last 10 however they have represented approximately 85% of the runners.
There has only been one winner aged above 6 in the past 20 years.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 9-1 or more: 3-10-55
Horses carrying 8-9 to 9-0: 7-12-107
Horses carrying 8-8 or less: 0-8-64
7 of 10 winners carried between 8-9 and 9-0 and all 10 winners carried at least 8-9.
Horses running with a penalty (1-5-16) have a solid record with 6 of 16 making the frame, and 1 winning.
Top weight: 0017002760 (1-1-10)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 95 or higher: 8-20-126
Horses rated 94 or lower: 2-10-100
8 of 10 winners (including the last 4) were officially rated 95 or higher.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (4 won)
9 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR on one of their last two starts in Britain
8 of 10 winners had won 1 of their last 3 starts
9 of 10 winners (last 9) previously gained 2 to 4 career wins
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had won no more than 3 handicaps
10 of 10 winners won over 1M or further
8 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season
8 of 10 winners had won a race worth 11K+
0 of 10 winners had previously won at the track
9 of 10 winners gained their highest grade win in class 2 or 3
Only 1 of 10 winners won a class 1 race (listed)

Other Races
Previous season's winner (Sweet Lightning): 0090 (0-0-4)
Highest placed finisher from Home Of Racing H'cap to run in this: 4184203 (1-4-7)
Wolverhampton Lincoln Trial (Nazreef): 0300 (0-1-4)
Racing And Football Outlook Conditions Stakes winner (Mia's Boy): 6 (0-0-1)
Molson Coors Noel Cannon Memorial Trophy winner (Leviathan): 6 (0-0-1)
Bunbury Cup winer (Brae Hill): 8 (0-0-1)
baden-racing.com Handicap winner (Captain Ramius): 00 (0-0-2)
williamhill.com Ayrshire Handicap winner (Don't Call Me): 805 (0-0-3)
Play Golf Before Racing At Southwell Handicap winner (Reve De Nuit): 000 (0-0-3)
Previous season's Spring Mile winner (Eton Forever): 0R0 (0-0-3)
Layla Hotel Earl Grosvenor Handicap winner (Kyllachy Star): 000 (0-0-3)
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Cambridgeshire, finishing 70
2 of 10 winners ran in the Tote International Stakes, finishing 90
5 of 10 winners had their last turf run at Newmarket the previous October/November
Mull Of Killough finished 5th in the Home Of Racing Handicap at Newmarket in October, winning his side but was clearly at a disadvantage from a high draw and that race is usually a good pointer for the Lincoln.
Since 2000 Record of first 5 from Home Of Racing H'cap in this: 0010143015400203 (3-5-16)

Trainers
William Haggas (2-0-3) has won the race twice in the past 5 years.
John Quinn (1-1-6) trained Blythe Knight to win the race in 2006 and finish 2nd in 2008.
Michael Dods (1-0-3) and John Gosden (1-0-4) have each trained the winner in the past 3 years
Richard Fahey (0-5-20) has yet to train the winner of the race but he has had 5 placed finishers in the last 10 runnings. David Barron (0-2-3) has seen 2 of his 3 runners make the frame.
Trainers who have not had much luck in this are Dandy Nicholls (0-0-13), Richard Hannon (0-0-10) and Tim Easterby (0-0-4) have failed to saddle a single placed finisher from 27 combined runners.

Draw (last 10 runnings at Doncaster 2000-2011)
Horses drawn 1 to 7: 5-15-70
Horses drawn 8 to 14: 3-8-70
Horses drawn 15 or higher: 2-7-86
Horses drawn 7 or below have won 5 of the last 10 from 31% of the total runners.
8 of 10 winners were drawn within 6 stalls of the Spring Mile winner

Price
6 of 10 winners were priced 10/1 or below.
There have been a few shocks in the past decade but 6 of the last 10 runnings have gone to horses in the first 5 in the betting.
Favourites (3-1-11) have won 3 of the last runnings, giving a level stakes profit of 4.33.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
·         Aged 4 to 6 (4yos especially)
·         Carrying 8-9 to 9-0
·         Officially rated 95 or higher
·         Won one of last three races
·         Finished in first 3 last time out
·         Posted their highest RPR in last two runs
·         Having first run of the season
·         Won over 1M+
·         Gained 2 to 4 career wins
·         Previously won 1 to 3 handicaps
·         Previously won a class 2 or higher (or won a class 3 last time out)
·         Won a race worth 11K+
·         Finished in first 5 in the Home Of Racing H’cap at Newmarket in October
·         Drawn 1-7 (or within 6 stalls of the Spring Mile winner)
·         Priced 10/1 or below (favourite especially)
·         Trained by William Haggas or David Barron

Its a fun race guys thats all it is I know how exciting it is for the first big race and there is no way you can have only one animal running for you - watch for the bias from the early race but dont be completely fooled by that result - look to the trends look for the pace - back the winner

 Bob

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