Thursday 15 March 2012 Cheltenham racing on new ground -- take notice
Warning: It's slow
Jockey Barry Geraghty has run a couple of laps of the track and finds it "on the easy side of good".
"I'm wearing runners so couldn't get the best feel of it, but it will be slower than Tuesday and Wednesday," he said.
Jason Maguire, who rides Peddlers Cross in the opening Jewson Novices' Chase, agrees.
"It's perfect," he said. "The dead side of good."
1.30 The first race is pretty new having only been run once before and Peddlers will be all the rage but am happy that will be much closer run affair and am taking him on today with Champion Court who I rate as high as Peddlers and has the form in the book for both distance track and ground conditions was brushed aside by Gran Cruz last year but has a lovely action jumps well and though he has a lot to find its the distance that convinces me he has the edge.
Also one that takes my eye is long shot Bold Sir Brian from the Lucinda yard s a lovely, big sort, exciting prospect The ground will be all against him as it drys and that’s the worry but if he runs am getting a small each way bet in Non Runner !
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2.05 The second race on day 3 is the Pertemps Final, which is a listed handicap hurdle run over 3 miles. Horses not quite thought good enough for the World Hurdle often take their place in this and with Big Buck’s likely to scare off a few in that race, this could be quite a high class renewal this year. It has thrown up a couple of 50/1 winners in past 7 years and it’s always a tricky race to work out. But its a fascinating one for the trends and stats 9 of 10 winners were aged 6 to 9 and they accounted for 32 of 40 places, though they have accounted for almost 77% of the total runners. The only horse aged 10+ to win this was Buena Vista last year after he had won the race in 2010 and finished 2nd in 2009.
In the past 8 running’s horses carrying 10-9 or less have won 7 and filled 24 of 32 places. Horses officially rated 129 to 142 have won 8 of the last 10 from approximately 63.4% of the total runners & they have filled all 15 of 16 places in the past 4 years. 8 of 10 winners had not won or placed at Cheltenham before (3 having first course start). 2 exceptions were Buena Vista who had won & placed in this race the year before winning this. HE IS NOW11 While previous course form is never a negative; it appears far from essential in this.
10 of 10 winners had won no more than 3 handicap hurdles - 9 of 10 winners had won a Class 3 or higher hurdle - 8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions had finished 2nd over 3M+)
Ok what does that leave us with? BellFlower Boy aged 9 10-6 Ridden By Quinlan who takes off a really handy(5lbs) and this lad is 25% strike rate at Cheltenham will handle the ground distance and ran to about 2lbs below today’s 137 last time trainer is in good form and has a very decent 25/1 price tag sulky bugger that does nothing till he wants to and in the form of his life came right away without having to be extended from the third-last flight the owners did not turn him out quickly to avoid a penalty after his easy win and they must have had this race in mind had been rated 128 at his peak last March and he´s advertised before that he´s capable of running up a sequence when in this sort of mood.
post script - will take a chance on Ashkazar each way at a long price now the ground is on the dead side
post script - will take a chance on Ashkazar each way at a long price now the ground is on the dead side
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2.40 3rd race The Ryanair Chase was introduced to the Festival in 2005 as a grade 2 chase over 2M 5F for horses whose best trip fell between the Champion Chase and Gold Cup distances. It became a grade 1 chase in 2008 and has grown stronger each year. It makes up part of the supporting card to the World Hurdle on the Thursday and Albertas Run Who has won the last 2 runnings, will be looking to complete the hat-trick this year. No very strong trends on the age of the winner in this race though all three 10yo winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a Ryanair or RSA Chase at a previous Festival. 5 of 7 winners finished in the first 3 last time (2 exceptions unplaced in King George) 5 of 7 winners achieved an RPR of 154+ on their last chase start 7 of 7 winners had won at Cheltenham (5 over the trip) 6 of 7 winners had won a graded chase at Cheltenham (exception was placed) 7 of 7 winners had 2 to 4 runs that season 5 of 7 winners had won or placed in a Paddy Power or December Gold Cups 7 of 7 winners had won a graded race 7 of 7 winners were officially rated 152+ 6 of 7 winners (last 6) had won over 2M 5F or further Since the race became a grade 1 in 2008, all 4 winners had run in the King George.(Somersby and Captain Chris) I don’t like Somersby though peices first time really did improve him this is too tuff for a horse to rely on them for this - and though Hobbs runs captain Chris with some dodgy stats he does run this track really well on good ground and could bounce back to his Arkle Form of last year now he’s getting his yard a bit straighter
The one that catches my eye in this is last year’s Jewson Winner Noble Prince - A couple of seconds prefaced a win for him at last season´s Cheltenham Festival, and he now has three more runner-up placings to his name in the build-up to Cheltenham. The strategy of running him at shorter distances last season ultimately paid dividends on the day that really mattered, and it remains a distinct possibility that will prove the case again. Upped to this distance and sired by Montjeu should be achievable
3.20 4th race The Ladbrokes World Hurdle (formerly the Stayers’ Hurdle) is the highlight of the third day of the Cheltenham Festival. Won by some absolutely fantastic horses in the past decade, including Baracouda and Inglis Drever, Big Buck’s is the latest star stayer who is looking to become the first horse to win the race for a fourth time and stamp himself as the greatest staying hurdler of all time. 9 of 10 winners have been aged 6 to 8 (exception was Inglis Drever’s third win in 2008) The last three horses aged 9+ to have won it were all previous winners, so it’s certainly possible that Big Buck’s, at the age of 9, could do it again . - No horse aged 5 has ever won it. And here is a very interesting stat - French bred horses have the best record, winning 6 of the last 10 from slightly less than 30% of the total runners, and with over a third of their representatives getting placed. Irish-bred horses have a very poor record in this, failing to win any of the last 10 despite having represented almost 40% of the total runners. 10 of 10 winners finished in the first two on all hurdles starts that season -9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was Inglis Drever in 2005 who had won over 2M 5F but not run over further than that) 10 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting The longest priced winner of this race since 2002 has been 8/1.
This year it looks all Big Bucks in the betting and as you know have made a killing laying Nichols horses and don’t see any reason to stop at this one today – its a very very competitive race – I hope the stats are in for a battering on Big Bucks today. Dynaste wearing the tounge tie is very positive move from this yard Won Grade 3 handicap at Haydock on return. Has bumped into Big Buck's both starts since, acquitting himself well when second in Cleeve Hurdle in January, and sports a tongue strap this time. I really am sweet on the chances of another Mullins winner in So Young (FR) who has come of age as he’s been lifted in distance he ran a cracker around this track in the Neptune last year on good ground (Behind First Lieutenant and Rock on Ruby) Upped in grade after two easy wins in Ireland, he was staying on and in with a chance when he blundered quite badly at the last, having become unbalanced after a coming-together with the winner on the approach to the flight. He was no threat after his error but kept on well. Jumping his hdles much better this year .
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4.00 The fifth race of day 3 is the Byrne Group Plate, a grade 3 handicap chase run over 2 miles 5 furlongs. This race has had many different names in the past including the Mildmay of Flete, Festival Plate and Racing Post Plate. Trainers who have done well in it recently have been Nicky Henderson and Venetia Williams,(Niceonefrankie) who have scooped 4 of the last 7 renewals between them. The age of winners of this has been fairly well spread out though in the past 8 years horses aged 5 to 8 have won 6 renewals and filled 21 of 32 places. All 3 winners aged 10+ were bred in GB. It has been tough to carry a big weight to win this, with 8 of the last 10 winners carrying 10-9 or less. In 4 of past 5 years the first 3 home all carried 10-7 or less. Top Weight: 6953F670PP00 (0-1-12) has a very poor record in this. Horses carrying a penalty: UF0F70F71 (1-0-9) Horses racing from out of the handicap (1-4-26) have gained 1 win and 4 places from 26 runners.
AND THIS ONE IS GOLD DUST - In recent years it has become apparent that having a good claimer on your horse is a massive advantage: Non-claiming jockeys: 6-26-181
Claimers: 4-4-33 4 of 10 winners (last 3) were ridden by jockeys claiming an allowance. Claimers rode just 15.4% of the total runners and backing all horses ridden by claimers in this race since 2002 would have yielded a profit of £72.00 to a £1 stake.
10 of 10 winners had previously won over 2M 2½F to 2M 5F - 10 of 10 winners had won a class 3 or better chase 10 of 10 winners were sent off 12/1 or bigger.
Not a race to be backing one at short odds. The last 4 winners have been priced 66/1, 33/1, 18/1 & 25/1.
Favourites (0-6-10) have failed to win any of the last 10 but 6 of 10 favourites have made the places, including 4 seconds. 3 of the 4 unplaced favourites were fallers.
The stats against a horse carrying a penalty is significant and that very decent animal NICEONEFRANKIE carries the ex5lbs today but (and I say this each year) – he is well above the current OR of 128 and I make it at least 8lbs better in than his mark is a very progressive horse at the right end of the handicap off 10-02 has won over the ground and jumps like a gazelle he fill all the stats – you cannot have one animal running for you in this so looking for a big each way shot with a chance so lets look at the claimers and long shots Killian Moore rides the 11 year old Kilcrea Aslea who is 3lbs out of the handicap and quoted at 100/1 – has got round here as a nipper finishing 4th on soft ground but is better this ground his long losing sequence is appalling but he is getting his act together was beaten on the run in at wincanton last run over 2m5f soft - Successful in two chases at 2m 5f and 3m on good ground, will have a few of my pennies on that showing and the stats with a bloody good claimer
4.40 no big analyzer for this am backing the top weight Up The Beat who has been on our watch list for animals - is different class over fences to his hdles second to our Portrait King over 3m4f soft ground has never run on this ground (but is bred to go on it) Or this track Mullins has put his son on today -
that's it - all the races - give me some idea of your fancies?
Bob
WORST DAY FOR THE BLOG EVERRRRRRRRRRRRRRR
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