Morning update of going at Carlisle
The first race is off at 2.10pm and the going is heavy, soft in places on the chase course and soft, heavy in places on the hurdle course. It is forecast to be cloudy with sunny spells and there are no early non-runners.
The one to concentrate on here is the 4.20 and my red wellie pal Campbell Gillies riding for Amos who has an 19% strike rate around this track over jumps but its the prices he gets that make that rate to b noticed - £104 win to a level stake -- much underestimate trainer....the combination is deadly with a 17% strike rate and £111 profit to a level stake and Gillies has a 13% strike rate here for a level stake profit of £96.50
The selection is the out and out stayer BillsGrey off a feather weighted 10-01 (ran in this race last year off a mark of 90) gets in today off 82. They all pretty well bridle stayers none older than 10 have won it and its gonna be a slog Teenando is a classy horse but though a CD winner on heavy ground and Smith winning this twice am against him on age - Dove Hill is carrying more weight than any previous winner and though has Miss Walton on board with a very handy 7lbs claim the weight does look holding - could well be a bet in running ex Howard Johnson horse does jump well out of heavy ground
Good Luck today
Bob
Result ---- only the lay on Teenando saved my bacon - The solid early gallop in this moderate staying handicap had most in trouble a long way out and the first pair were up there from the outset. MR WOODS sprung back to life and came home a decisive winner, in the process leaving behind some horrible form figures. Harriet Graham´s 10yo had failed to complete in eight of his ten previous outings, but used to love this venue in his heyday and it was clear from an early stage he was on a going day. He sealed the race when quickening past the omitted second-last and idled from the last fence so is value for further. He was on a decent mark if bouncing back and should be high on confidence again now. It was the stable´s first winner since last August.
Last year´s winner Blazing Diva had struggled in four subsequent outings and had also failed to get home the last twice. She too was well treated if returning to form and she duly did so with a bold effort under an unsurprisingly positive ride. It remains to be seen if she builds on it, though.
Thefirst pair had it to themselves from a long way out and Billsgrey plugged on for a remote third. He was second in this event last year off an 8lb higher mark, but his two wins to date came off lower ratings.
Result ---- only the lay on Teenando saved my bacon - The solid early gallop in this moderate staying handicap had most in trouble a long way out and the first pair were up there from the outset. MR WOODS sprung back to life and came home a decisive winner, in the process leaving behind some horrible form figures. Harriet Graham´s 10yo had failed to complete in eight of his ten previous outings, but used to love this venue in his heyday and it was clear from an early stage he was on a going day. He sealed the race when quickening past the omitted second-last and idled from the last fence so is value for further. He was on a decent mark if bouncing back and should be high on confidence again now. It was the stable´s first winner since last August.
Last year´s winner Blazing Diva had struggled in four subsequent outings and had also failed to get home the last twice. She too was well treated if returning to form and she duly did so with a bold effort under an unsurprisingly positive ride. It remains to be seen if she builds on it, though.
Thefirst pair had it to themselves from a long way out and Billsgrey plugged on for a remote third. He was second in this event last year off an 8lb higher mark, but his two wins to date came off lower ratings.
1 comment:
I watched this race on replay and good on you for Teenando Lay.
Bills Grey seemed to me on video, a bit smaller than the first two physical and when you look up the history of Mr Woods and Blazing Diva, this performance in Carlisle looks a big surprise or improvement. In this race they went very fast upfront and it is true surprise that the first two sustained this on this ground. This seemed to me a big race of the first two,different to the results they scored before.Maybe they are course/ground specialists, but physical they looked also a different league to the third placed. I guess they were well prepared targeted for this race and had a better physical ability in them than the bare form suggests, or they run bad to get down the hcp and when they run they look superb. I wouldnt rate them Class 4 horses, i would think they could also win a class 3 if they are racing like this, but I would also have a careful look at them next time, as they seem to have also very bad performances on their day.
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