The Betfred Midlands Grand National is a listed handicap chase run over 4M 1½F. It takes place at Uttoxeter on the Saturday (17th March) following Cheltenham. Irish raiding parties have done well in the race in the pace 10 runnings.
Below we take a look at trends for past 10 runnings (2000-2011):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 0-2-3
7yo: 4-1-19
8yo: 3-8-40
9yo: 3-6-45
10yo: 0-3-27
11yo+: 0-5-22
Horses aged 6 to 8 have a combined record of 7-11-58
Horses aged 9 or older have a combined record of 3-14-94
No horse aged 10+ has won this since 2000 despite representing approximately 31.4% of total runners.
Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-10 or more: 1-9-61
Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 9-16-95
It’s very hard for horses to carry big weights in this with the 9 of the last 10 winnerscarrying 10-9 or less. In 2010 Synchronised (who bloody well won the gold cup yesterday) won the Welsh National) won this under 11-5, though only 3 horses finished, which makes the result slightly more suspect from a trends points of view.
Horses racing from out of the handicap (3-4-28) have won 3 of the 10 runnings from approximately 18% of the total runners.
Top Weight: 4PP7PPP98P3 (0-1-11) has a very poor record in this, gaining no wins and just 1 place in the past 10 runnings and only completing 5 times.
Official Ratings
Horses rated 133 or higher: 1-10-50
Horses rated 132 or lower: 9-15-97
9 of the last 10 winners were officially rated 116 to 132 (though 1 winner who was officially rated 128 ran off 133, 5lbs out of the handicap)
Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners won 1 of last 2 completed chase starts
9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start
9 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season
10 of 10 winners had won no more than twice over fences that season
8 of 10 winners had run in no more than 6 handicap chases
9 of 10 winners had won 0 or 1 handicap chase
8 of 10 winners were 1st or 2nd season chasers (2 exceptions were 3rd season chasers)
9 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (exception was placed in two 3M graded chases on last 2 starts)
7 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 in a chase worth 15K+ (all 3 exceptions had run in 4 or less chases)
8 of 10 winners were having their first start at the track (2 exceptions unplaced on 1 previous run here)
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners had won a class 1 chase (exception was 2nd in the Grade A Paddy Power Chase)
Other Races
Devon National Handicap Chase winner (Clash Duff): 2 (0-1-1)
North Yorkshire Grand National H'cap Chase winner (Posh Bird): 6 (0-0-1)
2 of 3 Irish trained winners ran in Paddy Power H'cap Chase, finishing 25
Trainers
Irish trained runners (3-3-22) have won 3 of the last 10 runnings from approximately 14% of the total runners and over a quarter of their runners have made the places.
Jonjo O'Neill (1-2-10) trained Synchronised to win it in 2010 and be placed last year.
David Pipe (1-1-3), Victor Dartnall (1-1-4) and Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-9) have each saddled the winner and a placed finisher.
Noel Meade (1-0-1) has saddled just one runner in this in past 10 runnings, the Bunny Boiler in 2002, who won the race and landed a bit of a gamble in the process.
Price
No strong trend on price as 6 of 10 winners were priced 8/1 or below and came from first 3 in the betting, but in the past years there have been winners at prices of 25/1, 16/1 and 12/1.
Favourites (2-2-11) have won 2 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 1.12.
Summary:
Based on the trends from past 10 runnings you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 6 to 9
· Carrying 10-9 or less
· Officially rated 132 or lower
· Won one of last 2 chase starts
· Finished in the first 3 last time out
· First or second season chasers
· Run in no more than 6 handicap chases (winning 0 or 1)
· Won over 3M+
· Finished in first 2 in a chase worth 15K+
· Trained by Victor Dartnall, David Pipe, Jonjo O’Neill or Noel Meade
The obvious route is to look for a horse that has won at the distance left handed and off a feather weight Another Palm from the Mead yard disappointing at Aintree can be ignored I think as its not the biggest of animals and the Beecher fences really got in the way - more positive was its run in the cork national showing all it des is stay
Posh Bird will do for my main bet has the wonderful Lucy Alexander and is a true stayer who ran our Portrait King down and to me looked all over the winner even getting its head in front at the end of the race coming from way back under brian Hughes fits the profile to a tee is out in the handicap proper at minimum weight and has a very nice 5lbs claim
The probable favourite Clash Duff is a complete right handed animal - a true stayer and heads the market - but each video replay shows how much it needs to go that way round will def stay the distance but has gone up a fair bit he loves to front run - will be watching him for a bet in running to see how he handles the left hand bends
ground is forecast good but its always going to be a slog and if the ground is anything like Uttoxeter it will end up the soft side of good will dutch the blues
Good Luck
Bob
3 comments:
Bob will be on the timeform today, see ya maybe.
Hope your week away from the races was good ben cos you missed some crackers -- prob be Sunday before am on the wall - which is pretty dead anyway - Pm me there
Tommorrow Im on soccer tournament mate, we always pass each other, everybody has another day free. I followed and read your posts from last week yesterday. Good tips mate, some decent winners. To the Gold Cup, Synchronised won it, and i had to think about Quito De LA Roque afterwards, i read he was on antibiotics and not really fit this season, if he would have been fir maybe he would have placed this year in the Gold Cup, because his running style would have been ideal for this event, when I take the Head to Head against Synchronised before, when they went slow.
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