Friday 30 December 2011

Market Observation!

I would like to know, what you think about market observation early and close to the off. My general observations.

Backing steamers, that have continual downward trend is not worthwhile, when you back at the lowest odds offered before the off.

Sometimes there are horses that steam in early until afternoon but drift heavily out until 10-3 min before the off and then within a short space off minute or 2 minutes, immediately before the off they are backed again with high stakes. They win quite often as I think and give good value most of the time, as you are able to back them at a high odds.

What I observed quite often is a forced drift out from people with better knowledge to rise the odds, and to back down before the off. Happens all the time.

Inrunning its also interesting to observe markets, when you have a fancied horse from the market perspective and the odds dont drift or drift a bit but are always immediately backed down, quite often these horses then win easily nevertheless.

Decent races but no world beaters running today 301211

Lots of work today so will be away from the blog unfortunately -  am happy with a place bet on Inspector Quics in the 12.40 - Alflora sired animal that will prefer softer ground - big imposing type that has been off while simply growing into its frame for the last 2 years - put up a decent bumper performance and will come on for hurdles.


The2.00  Veterans race at Haydock in heavy ground brings out some old sweethearts and the going is ideal for Camden George He’s got his own way of doing things.  He jumps well and  gets the trip. He’s sensibly handicapped 


 good luck today its about time we got some decent priced winners home


 Bob

30/12/2011

14.10 Taunton 3 runner 2m3f Novice Chase

Suburban Bay the Rag could be a nice value in this 3 runner race. I think punters will underestimate this horses formbook.

I actually noted its LTO run in Cheltenham in a big field HH3 over 2m5f and it ran a cracking race for its seasonal debut, what is more to come now? The horse was in the downhill freewheel point 2nd and looked so strong and closed down pretty heavily and made a really bad stumble on a downhill fence, which knocked it out of the acceleration and at this fence at this point in Chel it is really a big disadvantage I would say. Menorah for sure is the fav but given its a three runner field and Suburban Bay could have won a strong HH3 in Chelt and the other horse Royals Charter doesnt convince me on paper. Suburban Bay has a small chance to win this I think and a great chance to place.

Thursday 29 December 2011

NOTEBOOK 291211

AND AGAIN THIS HORSE SHOWS BRILL FORM 40/1 25 DSR KELSO 2M6F NEEDS FURTHER 291211 WHILLANS FOR WHILLANS WHO LEFT IT TOO LATE SOFT GROUND Charlie Bucket, who had not really taken to fences this autumn, had first-time blinkers for this return to hurdles and stayed on in good style without looking likely to trouble the winner. A more positive ride or a longer trip next time could benefit him, if the blinkers work as well.

NON TRYER?

 See what you think about this race (1.30 Kelso)
" wow a non tryer today 2m1f soft notebook and analyser fell last time and was given such an easy ride 291211 only 4 yrd old kelso hndicap chase Pena Dorada, an early faller on his previous start, had previously shown a fair level of form and was always in the leading group. He could not stay with the first two from the third-last but kept going and is worth another try over further. BUT DID NOT HAVE ANY RIDING OUT"  20/1 Peter Buchanan  there was a lot of action far to far out in the country and then was given a coasting ride up the hill he was only pushed out

The Istabraq Festival Hurdle 291211 at 1.55

The Istabraq Festival Hurdle is the highlight of the fourth and final day of the Leopardstown Christmas Festival, Today  29th December at 1.55  A grade 1 hurdle, run over 2 miles, it attracts the top Irish hopes for the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle and has been won by the likes of Istabraq, Brave Inca, Sublimity and Hurricane Fly in the past 10 years.


Horses aged 4 to 6 have a combined record of 4-5-35.
Horses aged 7+ have a combined record of 6-5-24.
The only horse aged over 8 to ever win the race was the mighty Istabraq, who was winning it for the fourth time.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed hurdles start
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had run in past 55 days
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 3 times over hurdles that season
10 of 10 winners had finished in first 3 on all hurdles starts that season
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle (2 exceptions had won a grade 3)
9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 in a hurdle at Leopardstown before (exception was having first course start)

Other Races
Morgiana Hurdle winner (Thousand Stars): 5123812 (2-1-7)
WKD Hurdle winner (The Real Article): 12 (1-0-2)
Tipperary Hurdle winner (The Real Article): 42 (0-1-2)
Previous season's Deloitte Novice Hurdle winner (Oscars Well): 42 (0-1-2)
Galway Hurdle winner (Moon Dice): 5 (0-0-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Fighting Fifth last time, finishing 223
3 of 10 winners ran in the Hatton's Grace last time, finishing 311
6 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing F12211
5 of 10 winners ran in the Morgiana, finishing 23131
4 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing 1221
4 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle, finishing FU11
4 of 10 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle, finishing 9314
4 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing FF14

Trainers
Colm Murphy (2-2-4) has saddled Brave Inca to gain 2 wins and 2 places in this race in the past 10 years
Jessica Harrington (1-2-4) has gained a win and 2 seconds from her 4 runners since 2001.
Willie Mullins (1-0-3) won the race with Hurricane Fly last year and Dermot Weld (0-1-1) has seen his 2 representatives since 2000 both finish 2nd.

Price
8 of 10 winners (last 6) came from the first 3 in the betting
Only one winner went off bigger than 7/1 and that was Golden Cross, who won the race in 2003 at massive odds of 66/1.
The favourite (4-1-10) has an average record in this race having won 4 of the last 10 renewals and showing a level stakes loss of 2.87.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
  • Aged 7+
  • Finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 last time out
  • Ran no more than 3 times this season
  • Finished in first 3 on all starts this season
  • Won a grade 1 hurdle
  • Previously finished 1st or 2nd over the course and distance
  • Finished in first 3 in Fighting Fifth or Hatton’s Grace Hurdle last time
  • Finished in first 3 in Morgiana, Irish and/or Punchestown Champion Hurdle
Well this is a fine race and no mistake hard to look beyond the stats for the winner and The favourite really  though the filly Unaccompanied was the best of these on the flat and has a pull in the weights that makes her very attractive a bridle stayer with distance + on her side the  Listed winner on the Flat who wasn't far off the best juvenile hurdlers last season, second to Zarkandar in the Triumph. Made the most of a good opportunity last time the combination of Wells and Towend record this track makes the ultimate appeal to me
 I really like the record of Harrington in this race - she's no mug and has the rock of Gibralter bred Gimli's Rock entered as the complete outsider of the field - and the ground is forecast good - a very tuff animal with a 57% strike rate on this going on the flat from 8 runs --- she also has Oscars Well who is a very good animal indeed a stumble cost him dearly at Cheltenham and its run against Thousand Stars shows it has to find a few pounds today but a clear round he can win this 
an exciting race - let me know what angle you have on it 
 Bob

hard luck on my tenner at 29s yesterday

from  the racing post today

BETFAIR on Wednesday came in for fierce criticism from customers after they made the decision to void all in-running bets placed on a Leopardstown race after an incredible lay bet left a punter facing a theoretical £23 million payout.

RELATED LINKS

An internal three-hour long investigation into the fiasco concluded that usersof the site had suffered "a very poor customer and betting experience", after the decision was made to cancel all in-running bets placed on the race, in which winner Voler La Vedette was available to back at a price of 29 (28-1) as she crossed the line four and a half lengths clear.
A total of £1,642,094 was matched at that price after a lay bet of £21.3m was offered on the 13-8chance at 29 - which would have resulted in a whopping payout of almost £600m if it was all matched.
Betfair issued a threadbare statement which said the decision to void all bets was taken after it became apparent the appearance of the bizarre lay bet "was due to an obvious technical failure which allowed a customer to exceed their exposure limit."
Betfair spokesman Tony Calvin said: "It is an obvious error in the fact that the horse was 28 passing the line.
"To offer that kind of amount you would have to have £600 million in your account and anybody backing it at that price knew that something was wrong."
He continued: "It is clearly a technical failure that somebody somewhere was able to place a bet with that liability. Clearly nobody in their right mind would want to strike a bet like that."
BetfairThe investigation into how the bet was able to be placed was continuing on Wednesday night and Calvin added: "In response to a number of customer questions on this matter, we would like to clarify that the account in question has no commercial relationship with Betfair other than being a customer."
Betfair's share price closed down 3.16 per cent on Wednesday at 781.50p.

29/12/2011

River Dor 6 year old progressive type in the 2.55 Doncaster 3m2f Hcp Chase Class 4 pops up on my ATR list.

My notes: 09/12/11 new stable Chelt Ch3 2m5f

Flew up off a strong pace finishing most strongly off all, even stumbled at the last against good likes Thattldoboy and Night Alliance.

Today gets longer trip, down in class, still galloping and a long runin and only raised to 110 OR from his 108 perfromance in Chelt, which was better effort.

Back Win 2/10 Stake 5.2 BSP

Edit: Fall at the last trading at 1.76, looked in to win this or finish online with two first. Stll worth following, this was gain a decent race, if it stays on this mark and has heaps of stamina, looks sometimes outpaced but has real stamina.

Wednesday 28 December 2011

What is this?????????




Summe angenommener Wetten für dieses Ereignis:
€3.041.085
(Wettbörse: €3.019.071, BSP: € 22.015)
Verminderungsfaktor
41.0%
Wettübersicht - Volumen:
€2.222.189
(Wettbörse: €2.216.243, BSP: € 5.946)
Letzter Abschlusspreis:
29,00
Betfair Starting Price (BSP):
2.961569

Voler La Vedette

2.00 Leopardstown and 3.35 Leicester

decent turn out for this and McCoy gets back on Karabak who has not shown the form he has for quite a while.
 But this is his time of year and the mud is flying - recapturing his Newbury form could go in at an amazing price now running without the English whip rules current price says they are betting on his current form but was only beatem 3.5l by Big Bucks at Newbury this day in 2009 and McCoy makes this one well over priced

 3.35 Leicester and am still playing the big priced winner for the naps table so have looked long and hard at Enfant De Lune at a massive 40s has only got a 5lbs penalty for its all the way win at Sandown on soft ground - the ground is not cutting up much but the early races looks soft  from the bottom bend into the straight will do for me  

Fort Leney Novice Chase 281211

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
  • Aged 6 or 7
  • Run at least twice this season
  • Finished in the first 2 last time out in past 30 days
  • Won over 2M 4F+
  • Run in 2 or 3 chases prior to this
  • Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 or 2 chase or hurdle
  • Had last start in the Drinmore Novice Chase
  • Trained by Noel Meade, Jim Dreaper or John Berry
6 of 10 winners came from the first 2 in the betting, though in the past 3 winners there have been 2 winners priced 14/1 and 25/1.

Last Instalment  his form figures to date are already starting to suggest he is a horse that needs this cut to be seen at his best and he is the one to beat when the mud is flying 
First lieutenant pulled up in the Drinmore chase and The second that Day was Shinrock Paddy (winner was Bog Warrior)  First Lieutenant almost took the fence out and yet was asked to continue he had a very very hard race gaining ground before pulling up when his monkey of a jock got the message every one else got 4 fences back! ) Shinrock had no chance to collect against Bog Warrior who is simply fantastic - but did all its best work at the end of the race staying on very well having been prominent  If Bog Warrior had turned up for this race it would have been no contest. however there are chances that this race will be break neck speed and many casualties Shinrock is a sticky jumper but an improving profile and a breeding line that suggests this is its distance - the joker in the pack has to be Son Amix who looks a brill lil jumper in the making who has never been able to get its head in front but has the potential to surprise must be noted for its run today.  You have to respect Alle Garde wins over 3miles hdles handles soft and heavy ground
 am going for the blues for the forecast but its close

 Bob
 Get INNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

Lexus Chase 281211 leopardstown

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

  • Aged 6 to 8
  • Finished in the first 3 last time out in last 50 days
  • Had run once or twice this season
  • Won over 3M+
  • Won a Grade 1 or 2 chase
  • Ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup or RSA Chase in March
  • Ran in Hennessy Gold Cup or Betfair Chase last time
  • Course winner (or having first start here)
  • Trained in Great Britain
  • Priced 7/1 or shorter
The line up this year is pretty hot and to note - It has been won by some of the top chasers of the past 10 years including Denman, Best Mate and Beef Or Salmon. In recent years British-trained runners have held the call.

 Note the fact that horse who have won in the past have won over 3m+ and this puts the favourite( Jnwine.com Champion Chase winner (Quito De La Roque): 112 (2-1-3) in with the favourites chance.  
The fact that Synchronised Confirmed stayer over 3m5f soft ground  bypassed the Chepstow National yesterday for this race is a puzzle as he would have had a major chance in that race beating yesterday second easily last year and trained in almost identical manner this time around. 
Noland from Nichols yard is well over the winning age group for the race and not run for yonks has to have been targeted for this race 
Joncol and Cooldine fought out the Irish Hennessy on soft ground and were  beaten Comprehensively by Rubi Light last time over a very inadequate 2m4f  - You have to say Light has to beat the trends for winners of this race needing to have won 3m+ but with the sort of round of jumping that one showed that day there are very few that can beat him in the pure jumping arena.

Take nothing away from any runner this race but the 3m+ plus animals should be there at the death with the joker in the pack Magnanimity who seems well over looked has run well in heavy ground after a layoff of 60 days but has not run for 297 days. He performed so well in the Rsa over 3miles on ground too firm for him and has not been out since. 

 Not a race to be going for a longshot with all 10 winners coming from first 4 in the betting.Favourites (4-2-11) have a fair record, having won 4 of the last 10 but showing a level stakes loss of 2.68.

My hopes are that Rubi Light can go on improving and prove its staying ability because it is a star in the making but for this race the favourite has the form in the book Quito De La Roque should win this race - 

 Bob

Tuesday 27 December 2011

28/12/2011

Leopardstown 12.55 2m 6k Novice HH Good to yielding

Star of Aragon off a Mark 110 faces tomorrow again an uphill track and more likely ground like LTo Soft -Heavy and too classy race. Races off a mark to win here in Ireland and Claimer takes loads of weight. Convinced me upthehill in Cheltenham even if it was a bunched finish the pace was strong enough for this class and stays this. Ground is a prob a bit too soft likes it more fast tendency, but I like it that there is a pacemaker with fav Cairdin in this race, whcih should suit my selection. LTO there was no real early pace going on.

Beat in Cheltenham Priors Gold with 3 lenghts who had after 124, 125, 121 OR
Lost with 2 lenghts to Inspector Closeau in Fairyhouse 123,130,132,135,129 OR formline

so is around 120-130 OR imo maybe and with an uphill and strong pace worthwhile at good odds.

Stake 1 /10 Win 15,0
Stake 1/10 Place ?

BOOOOOOOM! Back 30/1 Easy peasy from the bridle.Loosing run finished.

Lexus Chase 2.35 Leopardstown
Quito De La Roque is at 2.98 BSP racewise maybe not value, as Rubi Light goes early pace and there is a danger getting outpaced, but its an Inrunning play from 3/4-end.Noland available 12+ is a danger finsihed level with 170 rated What a friend a is valuewise maybe the play here. But there is for me age doubt

Stake 2/10 Quito De La Rogue Inrunning if not getting outpaced after halfway and still good in contention.

2.30 Leicester

Quipe Me Posted 14 BSP Win Stake 2/10 4,6 Place Stake 2/10

looks a gift to these odds. Beat two horses 14lenghts head to head was 2nd to useful Rilieyv with Tom Cannon on Board last season, can see this longshot winning today in this weak field.
LTO Pace was Slow,Slow,Fast,Fast and the horse was flying the best and made good headway late, tomorrow off a great mark, Cannon on Board, seems to travel best on Soft and has 2m4f which should suit. 2nd LTO the race in Cheltenham was just too classy and there was an very early fast gallop and it got outclassed.

Edit: Led and weakened heavily late.

3.35 Leicester

Royal Opera and Action Impact for me Im dutching these two. Stake 3/10 Odds 3.4
Lay Grams and Ounces Stake 3/10 Odds 4.8

Edit: Grams and Ounces Won again gambled down to 3.0 heavily.

Royal Opera from the front very strong for me, Action Impact some nice headway in a classy race and could profit from the Pace set by Royal Opera here. Grams and Ounces bugger race out for me, Bin End didnt convince me, that I think it would have stayed like the winners of that race and is pacewise not good I think. I finally decided to lay Grams and Ounces here today was gambled heavily Lto on bugger track Hereford racing with many onepaced animals over 2m4f and even nearly missed the gamble. Carries an extra penalty today of 7lbs and there is not this strong market support early. Faces a different class today and a galloping track the ground dries out and this is unsuitable coupled with 2 miles.
Maybe there are many who just bet on him, because it got gambled LTO, but to me the form LTO was weak it was a weak race from the class of the animals.

Quito De La Rogue

Quito De La Rogue runs tomorrow in the Lexus Chase in Leopardstow, one of the only newcomers out there, that could be a Gold Cup Contender that is unexposed. Interesting to watch. Minervaracing favours Rubi Light in this race by the way.

Horses from 26th

Horses to follow from 26th Dec

ThattlDoboy will win a race again off this mark soon I think 2 times very unlucky now but is always well in contention in truly run races and went into gear at the last when fell in Kempton.

I noted Tetlami and Vulcanite from the Class 2 Novice Hurdle run in Kempton that day as the time sectionals and also the closing sectionals of that race compare very nice with the Hurdle race Binocular,Overturn raced in. So there should be every chance to get a a Novice Hurdle again for both of them and there are on my tracker list. Tetlami is 5 year old and Vulcanite had his first Hurdle Start as a 4 year old. Both horses for the future.

Coral national Official ratings 271211

TODAYFUTHORSE/WGTLAST 6 RATINGSLIFE WINYR WIN
HIGHLOWHIGHLOW
 
156Hey Big Spender 11-12150155154154151150150130150150
152Carruthers 11-8155156148146146146146146146146
149Blazing Bailey 11-5147133146153153151146133146133
147Cappa Bleu 11-3148140140140140140
146Galaxy Rock 11-2131124130135135124135124
139Viking Blond 10-9138137136140140
1398As De Fer 10-9114110122135135135110135110
136Giles Cross 10-6135135134132136132132132132132
136Or Noir De Somoza 10-6155152139135
133Any Currency 10-3132132132132133127119
132Knighton Combe 10-2123115115123123123107123123
1324Cannington Brook 10-2132128128128128128128128128
1314Le Beau Bai 10-1137135135131132127139127127127
130-3Indifference Curve 10-0118108125123125126111111
130-4Master Overseer 10-09810511612212113011698
129Mumbles Head 10-0140139137137
129Ballyfitz 10-0133133133142129129
1283Our Island 10-0129130128
127Heathcliff 10-0127127127127130128
127-2Bench Warrent 10-0129129129133129135

well worth looking at hope this information is useful