Last day blues for the top two guys with a 28/1 winner - no form no reason no bloody idea and it skated in they sat there holding nothing just waiting for others to fail - gods of lil punters know how this one got home but get home it did - well called John C
Now the top two guys have to come up with something similar in the next few hours -- good luck its now a race proper
Bob
Wednesday 31 August 2011
Tuesday 30 August 2011
Naps table 300811
What an unsatisfactory format this new naps table has turned out to be -There really should be two separate table one for the lay and one for the win selectors. The compromise of paying out the top two Lsp is clumsy.how can you have two winners with different "scores" ? The guy laying in second place does not have to try and get past the leader to collect 6 weeks free subs gets away from the element of winner takes all. There is a queue for second place that's true but the guy who simply lay'd his 100/1 shots throughout the month is not being taken on and a "winner"? I don't think so - come on lads don't settle for second place there are 6 of you still with a chance.
I hope the format is abandoned for September
have not really been able to put too many tips up on it this month so the last two days is critical for me needing to find at least a 10/1 shot to get second and 14/1 to get the top prize. - And with the next two days racing dominated by two year old races that does look a complete no no.
So in the expectation of a good race at Ripon in the 4.10 with course and ground runners with form have turned my attention to that race for my nap -- 1m2f g/sft good in places with forecast light rain - and horses that are returning for the race they went well in last year and am Happy to side with Ailsa Craig and Fastnet Storm and a hint for that scopy individual Destiny Blue - see that Geoffrey has selected Ailsa Craig the filly who beat home Fastnet Storm here last year but who has a weight disadvantage with that one today.
Its a race dominated by 4 yr old's over the past 10 years and favours front runners drawn all over the place
who wants a bet that the leaders will be overtaken in the last 2 days ?
Result ---- A race in which it seemed an advantage to come from the rear, the early pace being a good one.
Runaway winner SCRAPPER SMITH recovered having been denied a clear run to power away on this first try at 1m2f. He´d been expected to improve for it andthe soft ground was certainly in his favour. He´ll be forced up in grade now, but is unexposed over this trip and could have more to offer.
Mirrored, back on the same mark as when winning at Doncaster on his reappearance in April, stayed on from off the pace and will be of obvious interest next time.
Classic Colori continues to ease down the weights and his last two efforts have been better, suggesting his new yard can get a win out of him.
Pleasant Day, 1lb higher than when winning at the course in June, left several dismal efforts behind in finishing fourth.
Ailsa Craig, up 2lb for winning at Beverley, was forced a bit wide and didn´t get the best of runs, so probably should have finished closer.
In-form 3-y-o King Of The Celts stays further than this, but in wanting to ensure it was proper test at the distance got involved in going too fast early with Fastnet Storm, and the pair had nothing left when it mattered.
Epernay has been running well all year, buthe was under pressure and looked awkward rounding the final bend, eventually dropping right out. This wasn´t her true form.[MB]
QUOTES: Alistair Whillans, trainer of Scrapper Smith: "We always thought he´d stay and the rain came in time for him as he loves the softer ground. The handicapper will put him up for this so we will probably have to raise him in grade next time."
I hope the format is abandoned for September
have not really been able to put too many tips up on it this month so the last two days is critical for me needing to find at least a 10/1 shot to get second and 14/1 to get the top prize. - And with the next two days racing dominated by two year old races that does look a complete no no.
So in the expectation of a good race at Ripon in the 4.10 with course and ground runners with form have turned my attention to that race for my nap -- 1m2f g/sft good in places with forecast light rain - and horses that are returning for the race they went well in last year and am Happy to side with Ailsa Craig and Fastnet Storm and a hint for that scopy individual Destiny Blue - see that Geoffrey has selected Ailsa Craig the filly who beat home Fastnet Storm here last year but who has a weight disadvantage with that one today.
Its a race dominated by 4 yr old's over the past 10 years and favours front runners drawn all over the place
who wants a bet that the leaders will be overtaken in the last 2 days ?
Result ---- A race in which it seemed an advantage to come from the rear, the early pace being a good one.
Runaway winner SCRAPPER SMITH recovered having been denied a clear run to power away on this first try at 1m2f. He´d been expected to improve for it andthe soft ground was certainly in his favour. He´ll be forced up in grade now, but is unexposed over this trip and could have more to offer.
Mirrored, back on the same mark as when winning at Doncaster on his reappearance in April, stayed on from off the pace and will be of obvious interest next time.
Classic Colori continues to ease down the weights and his last two efforts have been better, suggesting his new yard can get a win out of him.
Pleasant Day, 1lb higher than when winning at the course in June, left several dismal efforts behind in finishing fourth.
Ailsa Craig, up 2lb for winning at Beverley, was forced a bit wide and didn´t get the best of runs, so probably should have finished closer.
In-form 3-y-o King Of The Celts stays further than this, but in wanting to ensure it was proper test at the distance got involved in going too fast early with Fastnet Storm, and the pair had nothing left when it mattered.
Epernay has been running well all year, buthe was under pressure and looked awkward rounding the final bend, eventually dropping right out. This wasn´t her true form.[MB]
QUOTES: Alistair Whillans, trainer of Scrapper Smith: "We always thought he´d stay and the rain came in time for him as he loves the softer ground. The handicapper will put him up for this so we will probably have to raise him in grade next time."
Saturday 27 August 2011
Scoop6 - Big Cash?
As ever the Scoop6 offers the most challenging races of the day to crack. I suspect that the safest bet is that there will be no winners today unless its a multi line syndicate. So for my £2 investment (extravagant I know).....
2.30 New Samitar - Difficult to look past the favourite: Top Rated, most improved up 8lb but down in class (-7lb in my rating) others only 2 have run in group races and performed poorly.
2.35 Bev Polish World HAs course record and front runner who has CDG form - I think that is underrated
3.05 Bev Sud Pacific has distance and going form coupled with 3 lb claimer should put him in the running
3.30 New Monsieur Chevalier has won on soft and was second at Ascot on GS. Macs Poweraslso has claims rated 136 and top improver but worry about going. Cinderkap also has claims.
3.35 Bev Top 4 in betting 5.6-6.0 on Betfair...preferance for Captian Dunne who ran well in Nunthorpe 7th in a blanket finish
3.50 Good if Bronze Prince takes to Goodwood with its down hill run in then he has a great chance - he is a big improver with both jockey and Trainer in good form
Would also highlight Motivator progeny in 2.15 Goodwood- Mortrice to take Drunken Sailor
and Midnight Oil in the 4.00 Newmarket who will be my nap for the day - not that it matters in teh competition any more!
from the hannon Yard
| Dubawi Gold flies the flag in Celebration |
With Strong Suit waiting for Longchamp, Dubawi Gold flies the flag for us in Saturday's G2 Celebration Mile, and Richard Hannon is hopeful of a big run. He said:"Dubawi Gold is the only three-year-old in the field, but the classic generation came out on top the last three years and he goes there with a decent chance. "Dubawi Gold did not settle in the Hungerford at Newbury last time, and he is best judged on his two excellent runs in the Guineas, at Newmarket and The Curragh. "Granted, both were on fastish ground and Goodwood looks like riding slow at best, but it was soft when he won the Hyperion at Ascot last year for Michael Dods, so we'd be hopeful that he will cope with the conditions." Casual Glimpse also heads down to Sussex for the big seven furlong handicap, and the boss added:"Hughesie rode a peach of a race when he won on him down there at the 'Glorious' meeting, so, hopefully, he can work the oracle again. The horse is only 4lb higher and seems to have got all his old confidence back now that we have dropped him down in grade, and he has the rails draw which is always a plus over this trip." We also run My Queenie in the G3 Prestige Stakes. "She was a bit unlucky when third to Rakasa at ther big meeting, and I'd be hopeful that we'd give that one a race. Our filly has since run well a Salisbury and is going the right way." observed the boss. Zebedee gave us many great days last year, not least when winning the £100,000 Tattersalls Million at Newmarket, and let's hope we can get in the money in the HQ feature tomorrow with Jacob's Cat. The boss said:"It might have been a decent maiden he won at Salisbury - the runner-up (Top Cop) was strongly fancied and has since won at Bath - and ours has done well since. "We also run Monsieur Chevalier up there in the Hopeful Stakes, and his chance has been enhanced by the rain. He relishes a bit of cut, as he showed when runner-up to Society Rock in the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot, but he never let himself down on the firm ground in the July Cup and that run is best ignored. "Amazing Storm is our runner in the nursery there. He was never going better than at the end when winning his maiden (6f) at Windsor, so the extra distance will suit him." |
saturday 27th - others today
2.35 Beverly - if the rain stays away! POLISH WORLD is the complete Beverly horse and has the plum draw for his front running best today he loves this track ( going for his fourth win over C&D) and he needs the better ground to shine today.
Result ---- 1 Polish World 17/2
2 Mr Rainbow 8/1
3 Oratory 12/1
2.50 Goodwood - think the filly with the outstanding chance is RAKASA, the first foal of an unraced half-sister to French 1000 Guineas winner Valentine Waltz, knew her job on her debut and finished well to collar and then hold the front-running runner-up close home. While the bare result looks nothing special, she´s entitled to come on for the outing and be given a chance in Listed/Group company, although on the face of it her stable boasts stronger contenders for the top prizes.It´s hard to know the value of this maiden form, but it does seem to underline the strength of the Godolphin stable in the juvenile fillies´ division this season.
Result 1 Regal Realm 2/1F
2 Rakasa 11/2
3 Questing 3/1
3.35 Dinkum Diamond the only 3 yr old in the race and one of Candys hot pots at 5flngs and ideal conditions for it today - has a wide draw but thats not a worry as he should either tuck in and use his turn of foot late he's had a very good winter but has not even grown 1cm. He's still tiny but he's got plenty of toe.
1 Tangerine Trees 10/1
2 Duchess Dora 7/2
3 Dinkum Diamond 3/1F
5.35 Goodwood 2miles. Only Secret Edge has tried the distance and that was on AW.There is surely a race in him today now he´s found his ideal sort of test, and in the longer term he should make a nice hurdler. This is a handicap where it counts to have a stamina index in the breeding Veloce is by hurricane run and any soft in the ground description will help with a fast finishing second over 1m6f to grab second on ground too fast for him looks good - Mancunian is motivator sired and the ground g/soft should be near perfect in the handicap to a mark ran a decent race at Lingfield last time and is an improver Strengths and Stays is a dark horse on its running behind two subsequent winners at Sandown another Motivator animal has cheek pieces on first time today never run on anything softer than good is running off the same mark today
Result - 1 Secret Edge 3/1
2 Compassion 16/1
3 Veloce 7/4 Fav
good luck all
Result ---- 1 Polish World 17/2
2 Mr Rainbow 8/1
3 Oratory 12/1
2.50 Goodwood - think the filly with the outstanding chance is RAKASA, the first foal of an unraced half-sister to French 1000 Guineas winner Valentine Waltz, knew her job on her debut and finished well to collar and then hold the front-running runner-up close home. While the bare result looks nothing special, she´s entitled to come on for the outing and be given a chance in Listed/Group company, although on the face of it her stable boasts stronger contenders for the top prizes.It´s hard to know the value of this maiden form, but it does seem to underline the strength of the Godolphin stable in the juvenile fillies´ division this season.
Result 1 Regal Realm 2/1F
2 Rakasa 11/2
3 Questing 3/1
3.35 Dinkum Diamond the only 3 yr old in the race and one of Candys hot pots at 5flngs and ideal conditions for it today - has a wide draw but thats not a worry as he should either tuck in and use his turn of foot late he's had a very good winter but has not even grown 1cm. He's still tiny but he's got plenty of toe.
1 Tangerine Trees 10/1
2 Duchess Dora 7/2
3 Dinkum Diamond 3/1F
5.35 Goodwood 2miles. Only Secret Edge has tried the distance and that was on AW.There is surely a race in him today now he´s found his ideal sort of test, and in the longer term he should make a nice hurdler. This is a handicap where it counts to have a stamina index in the breeding Veloce is by hurricane run and any soft in the ground description will help with a fast finishing second over 1m6f to grab second on ground too fast for him looks good - Mancunian is motivator sired and the ground g/soft should be near perfect in the handicap to a mark ran a decent race at Lingfield last time and is an improver Strengths and Stays is a dark horse on its running behind two subsequent winners at Sandown another Motivator animal has cheek pieces on first time today never run on anything softer than good is running off the same mark today
Result - 1 Secret Edge 3/1
2 Compassion 16/1
3 Veloce 7/4 Fav
good luck all
Betfair Celebration Mile 27th aug 2011
The Group 2 Betfair Celebration Mile at Goodwood today at 3.20 27th August, is today's big race in Britain this coming weekend. Run over a mile for 3yos and upwards, it has been won by some top class horses in the past including Raven’s Pass in 2008, who went on to win the Breeders Cup Classic. Last year Poet’s Voice tasted success in the race and he is entered again this year.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 4-4-22
4yo: 1-4-19
5yo: 4-1-12
6yo+: 1-2-11
5yos have a super record in the race having won 4 of the last 10 runnings from just 11 of the 66 runners (16.7%).
3yos have taken 4 of the last 10 renewals, including the last 3. 3 of the 4 winners aged 3 had run in the St James Palace Stakes and all 4 winning 3yos had finished in first 5 in a major 2yo race (2 Dewhurst, 1 Middle Park & 1 Royal Lodge)
Weight
Horses carrying a group 1 penalty (6lbs): 43 (0-0-2)
Horses carrying a group 2 penalty (3lbs): 66533652 (0-2-8)
All 10 runners to carry a penalty since 2001 have been beaten.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times that season (Important stat)
7 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time (2 of 3 exceptions were unplaced in a group 1)
8 of 10 winner had won a group 2 or 3 (1 exception had won 3 listed races and other was runner-up in Queen Anne)0 of 10 winners had won a group 1
7 of 10 winners had finished in first 5 in a group 1 (2 of 3 exceptions had not run in a group 1)
Other Races
Previous season's winner (Poet's Voice): 31 (1-0-2)
Hungerford Stakes winner (Excelebration): 31 (1-0-2)
Pomfret Stakes winner (Emerald Commander): 3 (0-1-1)
House Stakes winner (Set The Trend): 334 (0-1-3)Spring Trophy Stakes winner (Beacon Lodge): 334 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Sussex Stakes last time, finishing 202
2 of 10 winners ran in the Hungerford Stakes last time, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in Sovereign Stakes, finishing 22
2 of 10 winners ran in the Windsor Forrest, finishing 75
2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the 2000 Guineas, finishing 42
2 of 4 winners aged 3 ran in the Craven, finishing 21
Trainers
Michael Stoute (4-1-9) has a super record in this race having won 4 of the last 10 runnings from just 9 runners. He has trained all 3 female winners of the race.
Saeed Bin Suroor (3-1-7) saddled the winner in ’99, 06, ’09 and last year (later disqualified).
Richard Hannon (0-2-10) has found a couple of places from his 10 runners while all 3 of Aidan O’Brien’s (0-0-3) runners were unplaced.
Price
9 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
The longest priced winner in the past 10 years has been 10/1 though favourites do not have a great record.
Favourites (3-2-10) have just 3 of the last 10, which is a particularly poor record when you consider that 8 of the 10 favourites were sent off 5/4 or shorter. Backing the favourites would have resulted in a level stakes loss of 5.11.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· 3yo who finished in first 5 in St James Palace or aged 5
· Carrying no penalty
· Finished in the first 3 last time out
· Previously won a group 2 or 3 (or multiple listed races)
· Finished in first 5 in a group 1
· Ran in Sussex, Hungerford or Sovereign Stakes last time
· Trained by Michael Stoute or Saeed Bin Suroor
· From first 4 in the betting
Verdict -The horse that fits the stats perfectly apart from last time out is Dubawi Gold 3yr old who carries no penalty his fast run against Frankel seems to have been forgotten though it was completely Jockey error in the Irish 1000 gns when Hughes held him far too long and had trouble in running as a result. His run behind Beacon Lodge was also down to a jockey error ( am not sure you can claim Hughes makes that many errors however) The 5 yr old who seems overlooked in the betting will carry some of my money and that is Set The Trend his third in very soft ground at Düsseldorf reads so well has only had three runs this term but his strike rate this distance is far superior to the rest and has decent track form with is dates between runs of the 40 day mark The Favourite Poets Voice has got a pacemaker and the trainer has a brill long layoff stats and any rain will help but the race has to be run to suite it and i think it needs the rain to fall and if it does not is a lay for me
Good luck all hope the stats help you make up your mind to get the winner
Result ----
The pace appeared solid for this Group 2 contest, but the form is no more than fair for the grade. The winning time was 2.56sec above RP Standard.
No Strong Suit, but Richard Hannon had a worthy replacement in dual Guineas runner-up DUBAWI GOLD, who returned to his best under a Richard Hughes ´special´, mowing down his rivals late to win with a bit in hand and further increase the dominance of 3yos over their elders in Group races this season. Having run well below par at Royal Ascot, things didn´t go right at Newbury last time (behind Beacon Lodge), but he settled nicely out the back and produced a fine burst to come from virtually last to first in just over a furlong. The Prix du Moulin may be next, but he´ll struggle to land his first Group 1 success their, one would imagine.
Set The Trend, all-the-way winner of a C&D Listed event on fast ground in May, was always well placed and looked to have made a race-winning move when edging ahead inside the final furlong, but despite staying on well, his younger rivals turn of foot was too much. This was still a career-best and he can progress again returned to a genuine sound surface.
Result ----
The pace appeared solid for this Group 2 contest, but the form is no more than fair for the grade. The winning time was 2.56sec above RP Standard.
No Strong Suit, but Richard Hannon had a worthy replacement in dual Guineas runner-up DUBAWI GOLD, who returned to his best under a Richard Hughes ´special´, mowing down his rivals late to win with a bit in hand and further increase the dominance of 3yos over their elders in Group races this season. Having run well below par at Royal Ascot, things didn´t go right at Newbury last time (behind Beacon Lodge), but he settled nicely out the back and produced a fine burst to come from virtually last to first in just over a furlong. The Prix du Moulin may be next, but he´ll struggle to land his first Group 1 success their, one would imagine.
Set The Trend, all-the-way winner of a C&D Listed event on fast ground in May, was always well placed and looked to have made a race-winning move when edging ahead inside the final furlong, but despite staying on well, his younger rivals turn of foot was too much. This was still a career-best and he can progress again returned to a genuine sound surface.
Friday 26 August 2011
Hi Guys Friday 26th August Nap table
Happy still to beat home the layers on the tips exchange but not many days left to do it -- have a horse or two for today but the ground conditions look as if they can change at an instant --- they all have to be in double figures so bear with me if they dont run as expected .
Ffoss lass ground is predicted g/frm which is pretty amazing - the forecast rain has missed it so far and if (big If) it remains like that I am very interested in Pilgrims Lane in the 4.50 3m 1f chase at mouthwatering odds of 20/1 currently betfair. This animal must have summer ground though has won on g/sft this is a very decent race and needs all the help from the ground it can get. It was its run in the Summer Plate at M rasbery showed that he has improved again for Keightly training and retains the partnership tonight with James Derham (3) who rode him for the embattled Harris yard. This track will not worry him nor will his weight but the ground is the thing for him and anything worse that good will be so off putting is well capable of achieving this mark in what should be a pretty fast race Edit Won by Frosted Grape who has to be in your analyser after this - Pilgrims would have won with better ground of tht I have no doubt but had a very hard race in awful conditions for him
6.20 Newcastle and the reverse is true for Red Fama who wants the cut and is a true 1m4f horse well enough handicapped and drawn in the middle of the track in 7 but this is very tight handicap. capable of a big show with these ground conditions methinks Edit - ground was perfect for him and napped it for a very nice 6/1 boost in the table (backed it at 12,5 so happy bunny
4.05 Newmarket and a sly look at Fists and Stone under Hughes is in order as the channon yard starts to fire was 2l behind Big Issue at Salisbury and no chance with him but has had a long layoff before getting to the track at a time when the Channon yard is getting into stride.. candy also has a decent animal in this race in Looking On and I would suggest this as the saver if your interested in punting today Edit - ground was completely unsuitable for both of these looking more like heavy than soft.
Good luck all lets knock those layers off the top of the table
Ffoss lass ground is predicted g/frm which is pretty amazing - the forecast rain has missed it so far and if (big If) it remains like that I am very interested in Pilgrims Lane in the 4.50 3m 1f chase at mouthwatering odds of 20/1 currently betfair. This animal must have summer ground though has won on g/sft this is a very decent race and needs all the help from the ground it can get. It was its run in the Summer Plate at M rasbery showed that he has improved again for Keightly training and retains the partnership tonight with James Derham (3) who rode him for the embattled Harris yard. This track will not worry him nor will his weight but the ground is the thing for him and anything worse that good will be so off putting is well capable of achieving this mark in what should be a pretty fast race Edit Won by Frosted Grape who has to be in your analyser after this - Pilgrims would have won with better ground of tht I have no doubt but had a very hard race in awful conditions for him
6.20 Newcastle and the reverse is true for Red Fama who wants the cut and is a true 1m4f horse well enough handicapped and drawn in the middle of the track in 7 but this is very tight handicap. capable of a big show with these ground conditions methinks Edit - ground was perfect for him and napped it for a very nice 6/1 boost in the table (backed it at 12,5 so happy bunny
4.05 Newmarket and a sly look at Fists and Stone under Hughes is in order as the channon yard starts to fire was 2l behind Big Issue at Salisbury and no chance with him but has had a long layoff before getting to the track at a time when the Channon yard is getting into stride.. candy also has a decent animal in this race in Looking On and I would suggest this as the saver if your interested in punting today Edit - ground was completely unsuitable for both of these looking more like heavy than soft.
Good luck all lets knock those layers off the top of the table
Wednesday 24 August 2011
Late on Parade for today 240811 Wolverhampton 6.40
Am going to play Storm Hawk in the 1m5f at Wolverhampton 6.40 --won this race 26/04/11 having run at 2miles Kempton the time before - an exact preparation for this race tonight. it is a bit of a track specialist with only 2 wins from 27 runs both those wins were here this distance -- last time it won off a mark of 65 and had a Dah of 71 the time before ran off 57 and got a Dah of 63. Tonight runs off a mark of 69 --- if he maintains his track and distance preferences and is trained to peak form he can achieve mark of 75. has Fahey on board taking a very nice 3lbs off If only it was as simple as that but the idea that it has been trained to the same profile of runs and does its best work here the current 14s has appeal.
I will make up my mind on it being a tip for the Vfb nearer the time
good luck all
I will make up my mind on it being a tip for the Vfb nearer the time
good luck all
Tuesday 23 August 2011
todays selection's tuesday 23 August
Hi Guys
today looks a stinker so many animals with the same credentials - Going is problematic too g/frm everywhere with chances of heavy showers so what do you do?
I like a couple and the first is at Leicester 3.30 where Dorbak for candy under Dane O'Neil is dropped back to 5flngs - is usually held up in his races so the 5flng should not be a big problem up the hill, six runner field so the draw should not account for much. was hampered at the start last time and watch the replay to show how well it was moving - dropped back down in grade from 3 to 5 is a big plus as is the fact the track is still forecast g/frm it has plenty of speed only matched by Barons Spy but he did it at bath in a low grade class 5 and Tamagin who has lost his way a bit since his 4yr old days
edit - second Despite the drop in class, he still had plenty to find with a few of these, but he travelled like a winner and seemed sure to collect when brought to challenge over a furlong out, but he either couldn´t or wouldn´t go through with it. He was claimed by Noel Wilson.
The other is the longer priced Stand Clear in the 3.45 Sedgefield a mare bred from Sir harry Lewis (a gal against the boys!) she is a decent lil mare who hdles well in the main and having blundered badly when she ran here (even having to deal with a slipped saddle was driven up by Graham Lee and past Cailin Na Ri in the dying stages of the race. She takes on Bandanaman for the Swinbank yard and the race weights and conditions are ideal to make a comparison with that win against Cailin Na Ri - she is back to the track she excelled at and if the conditions stay g/frm a clear round she will win
edit no she wont was able to get my stakes matched as she went short early but simply stopped - looks as if will be giving her more chance against here own sex and dropped a bit in the handicap she did nothing wrong - just not as good as I think she can be
and by the way ---- if your in running punt today the last fence has been moved 1/2 furlong closer to the winning post
good luck
Bob
today looks a stinker so many animals with the same credentials - Going is problematic too g/frm everywhere with chances of heavy showers so what do you do?
I like a couple and the first is at Leicester 3.30 where Dorbak for candy under Dane O'Neil is dropped back to 5flngs - is usually held up in his races so the 5flng should not be a big problem up the hill, six runner field so the draw should not account for much. was hampered at the start last time and watch the replay to show how well it was moving - dropped back down in grade from 3 to 5 is a big plus as is the fact the track is still forecast g/frm it has plenty of speed only matched by Barons Spy but he did it at bath in a low grade class 5 and Tamagin who has lost his way a bit since his 4yr old days
edit - second Despite the drop in class, he still had plenty to find with a few of these, but he travelled like a winner and seemed sure to collect when brought to challenge over a furlong out, but he either couldn´t or wouldn´t go through with it. He was claimed by Noel Wilson.
The other is the longer priced Stand Clear in the 3.45 Sedgefield a mare bred from Sir harry Lewis (a gal against the boys!) she is a decent lil mare who hdles well in the main and having blundered badly when she ran here (even having to deal with a slipped saddle was driven up by Graham Lee and past Cailin Na Ri in the dying stages of the race. She takes on Bandanaman for the Swinbank yard and the race weights and conditions are ideal to make a comparison with that win against Cailin Na Ri - she is back to the track she excelled at and if the conditions stay g/frm a clear round she will win
edit no she wont was able to get my stakes matched as she went short early but simply stopped - looks as if will be giving her more chance against here own sex and dropped a bit in the handicap she did nothing wrong - just not as good as I think she can be
and by the way ---- if your in running punt today the last fence has been moved 1/2 furlong closer to the winning post
good luck
Bob
Monday 22 August 2011
This is not a bath Towel - do not step on it
Monday Selection Naps table
The 3.30 at Hamilton and have great faith in Unknown Rebel at the current 12/1. The pluses are the forecast G/frm ground the minus is the draw --the pluses outnumber the Minus by a long way, is quietly progressive this season, recorded his third win at Chester last time and, for a gelding who likes to be out in front, things could not have worked out any better, as he was left alone to dominate at his own tempo. Kicking off the bend, he held off without sweat for a narrow but really untroubled win,he has not been penalised too much and ran too this mark and a couple of pounds more. Ran well here under a great ride by Julie Burke but she is not Philip Makin who gets the ride today Edit NO He does Not its back under Julie
Those against him -- The one I most fear is the top weight George Adamson for Swinbank - decent horse who seems best at 1m4f doing its best work late so a fast run 1m3f is well within its range can go left or right and the yard is striking form
Result - 1st (7) Unknown Rebel 6-1
-- Artisan ran a cracking race at Pontefract in a gentlemens Amateur rider race under 10-00 but cannot really judge that as good form dwelt at the start that day and a right ole muddle of a race cannot see why its 4/1 fav on that show
Carragold has won on this ground but prefers soft by the look of its action up in distance will help but not from this draw
Johhny Delta is a distance horse with a bit of speed but has to be held up - has a decent draw but is a poor starter
Joker in the Pack Northern Acres - Sue Bradburne horse who ran and won a fast ground race at Sedgefield last - sue Does not have many runners on the flat but this one is one of those animals that tells you its right and ready to go on the home gallops - funny enough went to her yard on a visit 2 years ago and this one Is a bit of the family pet who just about managed to keep standing up it was so laid back and recall Sue saying it will only run its race when it stops biting the stable door - it then went out and won a fast ground 1m1f race at Ripon at 14/1 that was off a mark of 63 and its return to the flat today after that last win off today's mark of 64 makes this one my Joker well drawn and a place market fun bet at the current odds
Those against him -- The one I most fear is the top weight George Adamson for Swinbank - decent horse who seems best at 1m4f doing its best work late so a fast run 1m3f is well within its range can go left or right and the yard is striking form
Result - 1st (7) Unknown Rebel 6-1
2nd (10) Carragold 11-2
3rd (2) George Adamson 15-2
12 ran
NR: Best Prospect
CSF £35.92
Carragold has won on this ground but prefers soft by the look of its action up in distance will help but not from this draw
Johhny Delta is a distance horse with a bit of speed but has to be held up - has a decent draw but is a poor starter
Joker in the Pack Northern Acres - Sue Bradburne horse who ran and won a fast ground race at Sedgefield last - sue Does not have many runners on the flat but this one is one of those animals that tells you its right and ready to go on the home gallops - funny enough went to her yard on a visit 2 years ago and this one Is a bit of the family pet who just about managed to keep standing up it was so laid back and recall Sue saying it will only run its race when it stops biting the stable door - it then went out and won a fast ground 1m1f race at Ripon at 14/1 that was off a mark of 63 and its return to the flat today after that last win off today's mark of 64 makes this one my Joker well drawn and a place market fun bet at the current odds
Sunday 21 August 2011
DataForm Tipping Contest
What a joke this is, the man in the lead is laying 66/1, 33/1 and 20/1 shots all day, any moron can do that!!
To make matters worse I thought i'd put up the winner of the big race (Stewards House) at Newton Abbot half hour ago which would have put me into the lead only to find out i'd mistakenly layed the beast which wipes me out of the competition. I suppose i have the comfort of knowing i've just smashed bet365 and paddy power with £50 e/w placed this morning on the winner @ 10's. But thats not the point of the post to brag, im very upset and am not going to enter this farce of a competition until laying is removed.
So come on guys knock this muppet off the top, don't let him win.
To make matters worse I thought i'd put up the winner of the big race (Stewards House) at Newton Abbot half hour ago which would have put me into the lead only to find out i'd mistakenly layed the beast which wipes me out of the competition. I suppose i have the comfort of knowing i've just smashed bet365 and paddy power with £50 e/w placed this morning on the winner @ 10's. But thats not the point of the post to brag, im very upset and am not going to enter this farce of a competition until laying is removed.
So come on guys knock this muppet off the top, don't let him win.
Saturday 20 August 2011
Tipster challenge August
Tipster Challenge August 2011
01/08/11 to 31/08/11
Prize: 6 weeks membership to the tipster with the highest level-stakes profit (LSP)
and 6 weeks membership to the tipster with the 2nd highest level-stakes profit.
Join in at any time. Good Luck.
01/08/11 to 31/08/11
Prize: 6 weeks membership to the tipster with the highest level-stakes profit (LSP)
and 6 weeks membership to the tipster with the 2nd highest level-stakes profit.
Join in at any time. Good Luck.
2.30 York 1m6f handicap
1m6f g/soft and really do fancy the Candy horse Ardlui on its run at Salisbury 1m4f - behind Whiplash Willie - was making his handicap début that day, was off the bridle some way out and took plenty of time to respond, but the way he kept on late suggests he is a real stayer worth a try over even further. Candy win yesterday shows hes up for his usual training winners late august and september
Ebor
Really like the chances of Invesstisement for Gosden as the win and place selection for me today ran a stormer in the Goodwood 1m6f in May has decent enough form on softish ground and the forecast good is a bit optimistic. Singspeil animal that has had very little racing its third at Goodwood behind Icon Dream and Petara Bay read very well in the context of this race useful on the Flat when trained by Andre Fabre in 2009, but he showed little in two starts over hurdles for Evan Williams in2010 and was last seen pulling up in that year´s Triumph Hurdle, after which it was reported he had a breathing problem and been very coltish. Mackay getys on very well with him and he is well in by 4lbs on his run at Goodwood - is coming to hand nicely and will do for me at 29s currently on betfair
last year the winner carried a lot more than is usual for this race and honestly the price for the win has been all over the place only 1 fav has won and only 2 animals inside 10/1.
4/5 yr olds do well carrying less than 9stone - Nursey really like the chances of Channon's horse Montaff for the win and place this is a decent 2 mile horse and if they go the pace they usually do (hell bent) that could hold it in good stead on the ground today and remeber 5 places for this race - bookies aint mad they have been pulling in the money at York and want more
good luck all
result ---1 Moyenne Corniche 25/1
2 Tactician 9/1
3 Investissement 25/1 4 Modun 7/1
Although there was a distinct lack of unexposed runners, the absence of any 3yos for the second consecutive season not helping.
They raced up the middle of the track in the closing stages and for the sixth consecutive running the winner was drawn in double figures, but considering the full result it´s hard to argue there was a bias. The pace seemed fair, with Tactician taking them along in a clear lead and having enough left to keep on for second, while the winner was well behind early. However, hand times make the race 1.92sec slower than the earlier Melrose Stakes.
The runner-up, representing a former trainer of the winner, was 6lb higher than when making all in C&D Listed handicap last time (but had 3lb claimer taking over from full jockey). He looked likely to be swamped when strongly challenged on both sides in the straight but kept finding for pressure and deserves extra credit considering his rider´s saddle apparently slipped slightly around 5f out, although his connections said it made no difference. He´s in the Cesarewitch and certainly shapes as though he´ll get further.
MOYENNECORNICHE was hard to fancy with confidence considering his only previous win from 24 starts came in a maiden back in 2008, but this was only his eighth run since joining Brian Ellison, evidently a trainer extremely capable at unlocking the potential inan underachieving horse. He´s had excuses in recent runs, notably sitting too close to an overly strong pace when finishing behind a few of these in both the Northumberland Plate and the John Smith´s Cup. This time, though, he enjoyed a much better trip,travelling well under patient tactics and producing a sustained challenge to lead late on. It was a fine ride from Dale Swift.
The winner might gain some confidence from this, but he won´t be easy to place now. As mentioned, he didn´t have any 3yos todeal with here and a return to Group company would likely require even more.
Investissement was given absolutely every chance under a good ride from Nicky Mackay, but he was outstayed, a bit like at Goodwood last time. It´s true that earlier in the season he narrowly defeated Moyenne Corniche on 2lb better terms over this trip, but today´s winner didn´t let himself down fully on that occasion. John Gosden´s runner shapes as though worth a try back at 1m4f.
One runner surely in need of a return to shorter trips is Modun, who arrived on the scene going as well as any of his rivals, but didn´t see his race out and couldn´t take advantage of being 4lb well-in. There´s plenty of stamina in his pedigree, being a half-brother to dual 2m Group 3 winner Patkai, as well as Saptapadi, but there was a suspicion beforehand this trip would stretch him, indeed when asked about the Ebor trip his trainer once said: "I don´t think that´s his distance." He can do better back at 1m2f-1m4f, but while he looked a definite Pattern performer when bolting up at Newbury on his reappearance, that seems less certain now.
Saptapadi, who was 3lb well-in, represented the same trainer as the winner and Brian Ellison commented immediately afterwards that he thought this one would have won under more patient tactics. While that´s just conjecture, it´s certainly hard to argue the horse wouldn´t have been quite a bit closer under a different ride. Racing close to the pace wasn´t the issue considering the runner-up led,but he was wide without cover for much of the way, and in the circumstances he did well to finish so close.
Fox Hunt had to be walked some of the way to the start, but he ran a mighty race considering he was conceding weight all round (9st 4lb or lower traditionally the favoured weight in this race) and had a slightly wider trip than ideal. He might even have been a place or two closer had he not been short of room late on.
Lost In The Moment had looked a bit unlucky behind subsequent Group 3 winner Green Destiny (and Modun) in the John Smith´s Cup over 1m2f here, and again when behind Opinion Poll (followed up in Lonsdale Cup on this card) when going 2m in the Goodwood Cup, but he ran flat this time, not making the most of being 6lb well-in. He´s not one to rely on.
Mount Athos looked a bit unlucky in both the Chester Cup and Old Newton Cup, but he was made to look paceless in a 1m4f Group 3 last time and it was the same story here, despite a forward ride. He has his quirks and probably won´t be easy to place.
Blissful Moment had been absent since finishing runner-up to Fox Hunt off 2lb lower in the Duke of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot, and he never featured.
Cill Rialaig didn´t run badly considering she was having only her second start of the campaign and had stamina to prove. She could win a nice prize back over shorter before the season is out. [RW]
QUOTES: Trainer Brian Ellison: "Moyenne Corniche has got to be ridden like that. He has to come late and loves that bit of juice in the ground. Saptapadi got lit up and sat too handy and was too keen. We were worried about pace and Kieren wanted to sit handy. If we had dropped him out he probably would have won."
Michael Bell, trainer of Tactician: "He has run very well and there is no hard-luck story, the winner beat him fair and square. The jockey said it made no difference [saddle slipping], he was in a perfect rhythm, it has gone back a bit but he was able to ride him the whole time - it had no effect."
John Gosden, trainer of Investissement: "He ran a good race and we were thrilled with him. We will think about the Mallard for him. The race was run at a sedate pace for the Ebor - the leader nearly nicked it and only one horse got to him in the end.
last year the winner carried a lot more than is usual for this race and honestly the price for the win has been all over the place only 1 fav has won and only 2 animals inside 10/1.
4/5 yr olds do well carrying less than 9stone - Nursey really like the chances of Channon's horse Montaff for the win and place this is a decent 2 mile horse and if they go the pace they usually do (hell bent) that could hold it in good stead on the ground today and remeber 5 places for this race - bookies aint mad they have been pulling in the money at York and want more
good luck all
result ---1 Moyenne Corniche 25/1
2 Tactician 9/1
3 Investissement 25/1 4 Modun 7/1
Although there was a distinct lack of unexposed runners, the absence of any 3yos for the second consecutive season not helping.
They raced up the middle of the track in the closing stages and for the sixth consecutive running the winner was drawn in double figures, but considering the full result it´s hard to argue there was a bias. The pace seemed fair, with Tactician taking them along in a clear lead and having enough left to keep on for second, while the winner was well behind early. However, hand times make the race 1.92sec slower than the earlier Melrose Stakes.
The runner-up, representing a former trainer of the winner, was 6lb higher than when making all in C&D Listed handicap last time (but had 3lb claimer taking over from full jockey). He looked likely to be swamped when strongly challenged on both sides in the straight but kept finding for pressure and deserves extra credit considering his rider´s saddle apparently slipped slightly around 5f out, although his connections said it made no difference. He´s in the Cesarewitch and certainly shapes as though he´ll get further.
MOYENNECORNICHE was hard to fancy with confidence considering his only previous win from 24 starts came in a maiden back in 2008, but this was only his eighth run since joining Brian Ellison, evidently a trainer extremely capable at unlocking the potential inan underachieving horse. He´s had excuses in recent runs, notably sitting too close to an overly strong pace when finishing behind a few of these in both the Northumberland Plate and the John Smith´s Cup. This time, though, he enjoyed a much better trip,travelling well under patient tactics and producing a sustained challenge to lead late on. It was a fine ride from Dale Swift.
The winner might gain some confidence from this, but he won´t be easy to place now. As mentioned, he didn´t have any 3yos todeal with here and a return to Group company would likely require even more.
Investissement was given absolutely every chance under a good ride from Nicky Mackay, but he was outstayed, a bit like at Goodwood last time. It´s true that earlier in the season he narrowly defeated Moyenne Corniche on 2lb better terms over this trip, but today´s winner didn´t let himself down fully on that occasion. John Gosden´s runner shapes as though worth a try back at 1m4f.
One runner surely in need of a return to shorter trips is Modun, who arrived on the scene going as well as any of his rivals, but didn´t see his race out and couldn´t take advantage of being 4lb well-in. There´s plenty of stamina in his pedigree, being a half-brother to dual 2m Group 3 winner Patkai, as well as Saptapadi, but there was a suspicion beforehand this trip would stretch him, indeed when asked about the Ebor trip his trainer once said: "I don´t think that´s his distance." He can do better back at 1m2f-1m4f, but while he looked a definite Pattern performer when bolting up at Newbury on his reappearance, that seems less certain now.
Saptapadi, who was 3lb well-in, represented the same trainer as the winner and Brian Ellison commented immediately afterwards that he thought this one would have won under more patient tactics. While that´s just conjecture, it´s certainly hard to argue the horse wouldn´t have been quite a bit closer under a different ride. Racing close to the pace wasn´t the issue considering the runner-up led,but he was wide without cover for much of the way, and in the circumstances he did well to finish so close.
Fox Hunt had to be walked some of the way to the start, but he ran a mighty race considering he was conceding weight all round (9st 4lb or lower traditionally the favoured weight in this race) and had a slightly wider trip than ideal. He might even have been a place or two closer had he not been short of room late on.
Lost In The Moment had looked a bit unlucky behind subsequent Group 3 winner Green Destiny (and Modun) in the John Smith´s Cup over 1m2f here, and again when behind Opinion Poll (followed up in Lonsdale Cup on this card) when going 2m in the Goodwood Cup, but he ran flat this time, not making the most of being 6lb well-in. He´s not one to rely on.
Mount Athos looked a bit unlucky in both the Chester Cup and Old Newton Cup, but he was made to look paceless in a 1m4f Group 3 last time and it was the same story here, despite a forward ride. He has his quirks and probably won´t be easy to place.
Blissful Moment had been absent since finishing runner-up to Fox Hunt off 2lb lower in the Duke of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot, and he never featured.
Cill Rialaig didn´t run badly considering she was having only her second start of the campaign and had stamina to prove. She could win a nice prize back over shorter before the season is out. [RW]
QUOTES: Trainer Brian Ellison: "Moyenne Corniche has got to be ridden like that. He has to come late and loves that bit of juice in the ground. Saptapadi got lit up and sat too handy and was too keen. We were worried about pace and Kieren wanted to sit handy. If we had dropped him out he probably would have won."
Michael Bell, trainer of Tactician: "He has run very well and there is no hard-luck story, the winner beat him fair and square. The jockey said it made no difference [saddle slipping], he was in a perfect rhythm, it has gone back a bit but he was able to ride him the whole time - it had no effect."
John Gosden, trainer of Investissement: "He ran a good race and we were thrilled with him. We will think about the Mallard for him. The race was run at a sedate pace for the Ebor - the leader nearly nicked it and only one horse got to him in the end.
Scoop 6
On the road today so flash numbers......
2.00 York Yoo Way
2.15 Sand Chain Lightening
2.30 York Lyric Street
3.05 York Harris Tweed
3.30 Sand Strawberry Dacquiry
3.40 York Modun / Lost in the Moment
Good Luck all.............must remember teh difference between a back and lay today!!
Friday 19 August 2011
Hannon Yard Friday at the Ebor - good stuff yesterday!
| Lilbourne Lad chases fifth Gimcrack success |
| Browsing over the record books with Richard Hannon earlier this week, it came to our attention that of his four Gimcrack Stakes winner, three were ridden by Brian Rouse (Sharp N' Early) Bruce Raymond (River Falls) and Willie Carson (Rock City), all long since retired, and, though Johnny Murtagh (Bannister) is still going strong, the boss suggested that it was about time we won York's big two-year-old race again. Richard Hughes, who has never won the G2 sprint, rides our representative on Friday, Lilbourne Lad, who epitomises the word 'consistency' and is yet another advertisement for that wonderful sire, Acclamation. The boss said:"Lilbourne Lad has proved a real star for us and he ran another cracker in the G1 Phoenix Stakes at The Curragh last time, only feeling the pinch in the last half-furlong. He has the 3lb penalty for winning the Railway, which does not help, but you could set your watch by him as he never lets us down, and I am sure that he'll be right there at the finish again." Our only winner at the Ebor meeting last year came in the Convivial Stakes, courtesy of Moriarty, and this year we rely on newcomer Imperial Order for the seven furlong maiden. The boss added:"There are plenty of well-bred debutants in there, but Imperial Order is a classy looking Excellent Art colt, who cost Sir Robert Ogden 75,000 grand at Doncaster Sales and, hopefully, he is ready to do himself justice." |
Snapshot VFB for the Nunthorpe
result not happy bunny 00 3-y-o MARGOT DID ran out a ready winner and posted a clear personal-best display on this return to the top level. She was done by the draw when finishing fourth at Sandown in Group 3 company last month, but had returned to her best when winning back-to-back races before that and is a real 5f specialist. All ground seemingly comes alike to her and, while she may have been racing on the best of it, she did travel most powerfully through the race. Indeed she could have been called the winner nearing the final furlong and this was another top-flight success for the massively improved Hayley Turner.
The winner was called a few names thanks to a string of frustrating efforts as a juvenile and her first two runs back this year also marked her down as one to tread carefully with. However, connections have obviously found the key to her this summer and she is now blossoming. Her trainer´s horses are also in cracking form at present. The Group 1 Prix de L´Abbaye at Longchamp in October looks the obvious next step for her and that test ought to prove right up her street.
Hamish McGonagall´s proximity clouds the water of this form, but he loves this venue and is yet another indication of an in-form sprinter being able to mix it when thrown in at the top level. He posted a career-best when just held over C&D 41 days earlier and this must rate another step up. The ground was in his favour and he was drawn ideally as it turned out. He fully deserves to win a Group race.
Prohibit was laid out for this after making the breakthrough in Group 1 company in the King´s Stand at Royal Ascot in June. He proved somewhat free early on, but was noted travelling powerfully 2f out. There is a reason why he sports headgear, though, and he hung markedly right when put under pressure, ending up down the centre having originally kept far side. He still emerged best of those drawn in single figures and helps to give substance to this form. Entitled to come on for the run, another trip to France looks sure to be on his agenda and his previous experience of such travelling dictates he has a fair chance of reversing form with the winner in the Prix de L´Abbaye.
2007 winner Kingsgate Native, who flopped at Goodwood last month, was having his fourth run in this event and sweated up beforehand. He still travelled sweetly, however, and returned to the sort of form that saw him finish second in the Temple Stakes on his comeback. He too sets the level.
The other 3-y-o Wizz Kid, another filly, beat Prohibit when last seen in a Group 2 at Chantilly in June and she was unlucky not to have confirmed form with that rival. She travelled nicely under restraint on the far side, but got outpaced when things became really serious. She was coming back late on, though, and found trouble when the gap closed near the finish. Her run needs upgrading and she looks sure to strike again when faced with more of a test.
Hoof It could hardly have been more impressive when carrying ten stone to success in the Stewards´ Cup at Glorious Goodwood last month and, with his liking for this venue already proven, itwasn´t surprising to see him head the betting despite this being a first crack at the top level. It was his first run back over the minimum this term and that showed as he took time to get into his full stride from off the pace. The plan beforehand was surely to track likely leader Masamah, but it went out of the window when that rival shot over to the far rail and Fallon momentarily looked unsure of which group to tag onto. That resulted in him tracking Inxilemore towards the middle and he was always getting there too late inside the final furlong. Things didn´t pan out for him this time, but it was still another decent effort and he´s not one to abandon.
Captain Dunne, a stablemate of the runner-up, is a real speedster and won the Epsom Dash on his previous start back in June. He looked a picture beforehand and had his chance racing towards the near side. This level just looks beyond him.
Masamah came into this on the back of a career-best win at Glorious Goodwood and was previously 3-3 over C&D. He unsurprisingly shot out to lead, but his unexpected manoeuvre to the far rail (Spencer picked up three-day ban) backfired and he was never going to confirm his previous C&D form with Hamish McGonagall.
Bated Breath confirmed himself a true Group 1 sprinter when second in the July Cup the previous month and was a leading ante-post fancy for this, but reportedly suffered an interrupted preparation. The easier ground was also a concern beforehand, but he still got very well backed near the off. He did his best to get involved racing handily on the far side, but it was apparent 1f out he was in trouble. He´s much better than this on a quick surface.
Molecomb winner Requinto was the only juvenile this year and had been supplemented for the race. Solid in the market with his big weight-for-age allowance, he never got going despite racing in the near-side group and clearly something went amiss. He was later reported to have been unsuited by the going. [DO]
QUOTES: Trainer Michael Bell: "Margot Did was very unlucky in a lot of races last year. This year things clicked into gear. When she won her first Listed race at Sandown I said the owners she should run in the Nunthorpe. Then she got aterrible draw in a Group 3 at Sandown and did well to be fourth. We thought we´d freshen her up for this. She looked a winner from a long way out. She will go to the Abbaye now."
The Nunthorpe Stakes 3.40 York 190811
The Nunthorpe Stakes is one of the sprinting highlights of the British flat season and is the big race today. A group 1, run over 5 furlongs, for 2 year olds and older, this year’s race looks the most open for years.
Below we take a look at trends for the past 10 years (2000-2010):
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
2yo: 1-1-5
3yo: 3-3-29
4yo: 2-9-37
5yo: 2-0-18
6yo+: 2-7-45
No strong trends on the ages though there is slight preference for younger horses.
Horses aged 2 to 4: 6-14-71
Horses aged 5+: 4-7-63
Of the five 2yo runners, only 2 made the first 3 in a Royal Ascot race: Kingsgate Native & Radiohead. They were the two to make the frame in this, finishing 1st and 3rd.
2 of 3 winners aged 3 ran in group 1 as 2yos (4th Dewhurst, 1st Middle Park)
Gender
Fillies/mares (1-2-26) have gained just 1 win and 2 places from just under 20% of the total runners.
Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had won that season (exception was a 2yo maiden)
6 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time out (2 of 4 exceptions unplaced in King George Stakes at Goodwood on previous start)
8 of 10 winners achieved their highest RPR in their last 3 runs
6 of 10 winners had won a group 1 or 2 (1 exception was twice 2nd in group 1 company, other 3 had yet to run in higher than group 3)
10 of 10 winners had finished 1st or 2nd in a group or listed race
Only 3 of 10 winners had won a 5F group race (2 had won Temple, other had won Kings Stand & Prix Gros Chene)
6 of 10 winners had won over 6F (2 exceptions had not run over further than 5F, other 2 were placed on 2 of their 3 runs over 6F)
Other Races
Highest placed July Cup runner: 3141772482 (2-3-10)
Kings Stand winner (Prohibit): 15290 (1-1-5)
Prix du Gros Chene winner (Wizz Kid): 1040004 (1-0-7)
Epsom Dash winner (Captain Dunne): 390 (0-1-3)
Sapphire Stakes winner (Invincible Ash): 4502 (0-1-4)
King George Stakes winner (Masamah): 20066 (0-1-5)
5 of 10 winners ran in the Kings Stand, finishing 13270
4 of 10 winners ran in the Palace House Stakes, finishing 1434
3 of 10 winners ran in the July Cup, finishing 110
3 of 10 winners ran in the Temple Stakes, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in the Cammidge Trophy, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the King George Stakes last time, finishing 64
2 of 10 winners ran in the Duke Of York Stakes, finishing 09
2 of 10 winners ran in the previous season's Abbaye, finishing 63
Trainers
Biritish-trained runners: 7-16-119
Irish-trained runners: 2-3-7
French-trained runners: 1-1-6
Other: 0-0-2
Aidan O’Brien (1-2-4) has gained 1 wins and 2 places from his 4 runners in this since 2000.
Eddie Lynam (1-0-1), John Best (1-0-2), Henry Candy (1-0-3) and Dandy Nicholls (1-0-13) have also trained the winner once since 2000.
Kevin Ryan (0-3-8) has seen 3 of his 8 runners make the frame.
Draw
Horses drawn in bottom 4 stalls: 6-5-40
Horses drawn in middle: 2-6-54
Horses drawn in top 4 stalls: 2-9-40
6 of 10 winners came from stall 4 or below
Last year higher draws appeared to hold an advantage so it’s worth watching where the winners are coming from in the sprints earlier in the week to gain an idea of the best draw over the 5F course.
Price
7 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
The favourites won this from 2000 to 2003 however more recently there have been a few bigger priced winners with the last 3 going off at odds of 12/1, 9/1 and last year, Sole Power, at 100/1.
Favourites (4-3-10) have won 4 of the last 10, giving a level stakes profit of 0.39.
Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Aged 2 or 3 that finished in first 3 at Royal Ascot 2011 or
· Aged 4+ that had won a group 1 or 2
· Won a race this season
· Finished in first 3 last time (or unplaced in King George Stakes)
· Won a group 1 or 2 sprint
· Won over 6F (or won Temple Stakes this year)
· Finished in first 4 in King’s Stand and/or Palace House Stakes
· Finished in first 2 in July Cup and/or Temple Stakes
· Drawn 1 to 4
· Irish-trained runners do well
Verdict
Hoof it has done so well this term and is the biggest improver in the Vfb and that stat has stood up so well this week so far - I will be including it in forecast pool but I really do like the credentials of Wizz Kid and Prohibit for the frame with a preference for Wizz Kid at the current odds of 12/1 which I think will contract
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