Well Guys the hidden Douglas maintains his lead but he has to hope against hope that no one lands on a price that will make him punt !
Finding something in the right price bracket is not difficult today but picking it as the nap is.. am going for the top weight at Goodwood in the 3.30 and my pin has landed on Petara Bay Just touched off by tungsten Strike here on g/frm this distance in a listed race makes it a decent bet first time up this season - carries top weight for sure but loves ground and distance and track - 7 yr olds are my age group for marathon races and Crowley takes the ride again today - have to hope that he's there with the pace and dropped in late (not too bloody late)
Good luck all Vfb napsters - would really like to see Sneaky Douglas - fall on his ass (no offence meant) the man has played a blinder - but if he gets beaten he will remember the winners he's had this month that he could have put up
Bob
Petara Bay was slightly short of room towards the inside rail with over a furlong to run, but he was under strong pressure at the time and basically took too long to get going. He was keeping on well at the finish, though, and should be better for this first run in 315 days.was backed down from 14s to 15/2
Saturday 30 April 2011
Friday 29 April 2011
Newmarket 30th
The Boss discovered that Borderlescott is running at Newmarket tomorrow.....so I have an excuse to drive across for the guineas meeting........so far I have spotted the following (although there has been some fizz drunk in our household today!!). I beg your indulgence to help make the day pay for itself!
2.00 Newm Proponent trainer and jockey top rated course stats good and has had a run this year
2.30 Newm Dandino hear that Elite RC have high hopes.....Laheeb main danger and Indian Days works better at home than Dandino but Given thinks Dandino more talented...
3.10 Nemw Roderick O'Conner for the reasons given previously
3.45 Newm Astrophysical Jet can't see past this one highest rated and might be better, likes the ground. This is of course the race the Boss is going to see as it has Borderlescott running...he has gone well in this race in previous years but is probably in his last season. The Bastiman's are having a dreadful time as Rebecca B (who had been doing most of the training) has a brain tumour and is not working full time.
Any comments?
Thanks in advance.
John
Frankel......what a horse, not a chance for the others......he was calm in the ring and behaved himself! The length of his stride is phenominal...
Borderlescott ran as expected.......but we were invited by the Bastimans into the parade ring..what a day.......doubt we will get to do that again! Oh yes first and second in the first and a win in the second made it all well worth while!
Happy days!
Bob, backing up your comments re Frankel: Data from Steve Miller see
www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2011/2011_2000_guineas_preview.htm.
Miller's Dosage analysis suggests that Frankel will excel at greater distances - the Derby for example...he suggests the following finishing order:
1) Roderic O’Connor
2) Pathfork
3) Frankel
4) Native Khan
5) Saamidd/Casamento
The article is well worth reading!
John
Frankel -- Breeding
Lets face it seems to hold all the aces on breeding but I just am not convinced as much as the guys who think hes the next Sea the stars has shown some temperament (not much I agree) but his return at newbury was as expected - This Guineas trial is well known for not producing winners at Newmarket, but the last horse to do the double was trained by Henry Cecil, back in 1976, Such has been the hype about Frankel this year that he reportedly outpaced a Newmarket-to-Cambridge passenger trainer earlier in the year. His credentials were there for all to see, unbeaten in four starts, which finished with a Group 1 success in the Dewhurst Stakes three weeks after winning the Group 2 Royal Lodge by an impressive ten lengths. Said to not have grown a great deal during the winter, which isn´t surprising considering his size at two, the one worry with him was whether this big, strong colt would settle and give himself a chance of running a race. Connections had taken the step of employing a pacemaker in Picture Editor, who had proved himself to be a talented performer as a juvenile. He seemed guaranteed to make this a decent test considering he was proven over at least 1m (he was one of the second favourites for the Derby before his Zetland Stakes defeat), but even he couldn´t hang on for as long as some may have thought, because Frankel was in the lead inside the 3f marker. Tom Queally looked to be racing a bit more freely than he´d have wanted, but his mount saw off the rival that dared to eyeball him and put up a workmanlike, if not spectacular, performance. Bookmakers shortened his price for the Guineas a fraction (his Derby odds unsurprisingly remained roughly the same), and it´s definitely worth remembering that this victory came when Henry Cecil´s horses had appeared to be needing the run.
Judged on this performance alone, he doesn´t look the type to thrive at much further than a mile, if anything he looks capable of holding his own at sprinting trips, much like his dam. The winning time was quicker than the Fred Darling, which had eight more runners in it.
BREEDING ANALYSIS: Trying to divine what distance Frankel will eventually excel over from his pedigree is a difficult task, as it emits mixed messages. He is by champion European sire Galileo, who flourished over 1m4f in the Epsom and Irish Derbys and was famously outsped by Fantastic Light over 1m2f in the Irish Champion Stakes. However, Galileo has shown at stud that he is capable of siring progeny who excel over shorter trips than he did, including with Group 1-winning milers Nightime and Rip Van Winkle, and New Approach, who was second in the Newmarket and Curragh 2,000 Guineas before landing the Derby.
Frankel´s dam, Kind, a daughter of Danehill and Lancashire Oaks winner Rainbow Lake, was a dual Listed winner over 5-6f but was a half-sister to Powerscourt (by Galileo´s sire Sadler´s Wells),who won the Arlington Million (1m2f), Tattersalls Gold Cup (1m2½f) and Great Voltigeur (1m4f). Frankel has a similar profile to last season´s Irish Derby and Irish Champion Stakes winner Cape Blanco, who is also by Galileo and out of a useful sprinter.
The puzzle is made even more difficult by the fact that Frankel´s three-parts brother Bullet Train (by Sadler´s Wells) lost his form, though it looked as though he would excel over middle distances when winning the 1m3½f Lingfield Derby Trial last year.
Judged on this performance alone, he doesn´t look the type to thrive at much further than a mile, if anything he looks capable of holding his own at sprinting trips, much like his dam. The winning time was quicker than the Fred Darling, which had eight more runners in it.
BREEDING ANALYSIS: Trying to divine what distance Frankel will eventually excel over from his pedigree is a difficult task, as it emits mixed messages. He is by champion European sire Galileo, who flourished over 1m4f in the Epsom and Irish Derbys and was famously outsped by Fantastic Light over 1m2f in the Irish Champion Stakes. However, Galileo has shown at stud that he is capable of siring progeny who excel over shorter trips than he did, including with Group 1-winning milers Nightime and Rip Van Winkle, and New Approach, who was second in the Newmarket and Curragh 2,000 Guineas before landing the Derby.
Frankel´s dam, Kind, a daughter of Danehill and Lancashire Oaks winner Rainbow Lake, was a dual Listed winner over 5-6f but was a half-sister to Powerscourt (by Galileo´s sire Sadler´s Wells),who won the Arlington Million (1m2f), Tattersalls Gold Cup (1m2½f) and Great Voltigeur (1m4f). Frankel has a similar profile to last season´s Irish Derby and Irish Champion Stakes winner Cape Blanco, who is also by Galileo and out of a useful sprinter.
The puzzle is made even more difficult by the fact that Frankel´s three-parts brother Bullet Train (by Sadler´s Wells) lost his form, though it looked as though he would excel over middle distances when winning the 1m3½f Lingfield Derby Trial last year.
Qipco 2000 Guineas. Saturday 30th April 2011
The first Classic of the season takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 30th April when the top 3yo colts do battle in the Qipco 2000 Guineas. The race has been dominated by Irish-trained runners in recent years with 6 of the last 9 going to horses from across the Irish Sea. Last year, Makfi became the first French-trained winner since Pennekamp won it in 1995.
Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:
Breeding
Irish bred: 6-11-72
British bred: 3-6-64
American bred: 1-1-39
French bred: 0-2-4
German bred: 0-0-1
Irish bred horses have won 6 of the last 10 from 40% of the total runners
8 of 10 winners were by a sire who had finished in the first 4 in the Irish, French or English 2000 Guineas (other 2 sires had won group 1’s over a mile: Lockinge & Breeders Cup Mile).
10 of 10 winners were by a sire who’d won a group 1 over 6F to 8F
Recent Form
8 of 10 winners won on their first run as a 2yo
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 86+ on debut
7 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut at Newmarket, Curragh or Gowran Park
7 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times before (3 exceptions were unbeaten)
8 of 10 winners had won 2+ races (1 exceptions had run just once)
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time (8 won)
10 of 10 winners had their last run in August or later
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out (2 exceptions posted it on penultimate start)
8 of 10 winners had won at group level (1 exception placed in a group 2 and other had run just once, winning his maiden)
7 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season (3 exceptions won a recognised Guineas Trial)
9 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F
3 of 10 winners had won at Newmarket (1 exception was placed on only run at the track, other 6 were having first run here)
2yo Races
National Stakes winner (Pathfork): 2105125 (2-2-7)
Dewhurst winner (Frankel): 914822 (1-2-6)
Beresford Stakes winner (Casamento): 3516 (1-1-4)
Futurity Stakes winner (Pathfork): 2482 (0-2-4)
Solario Stakes winner (Native Khan): 03004 (0-1-5)
Racing Post Trophy winner (Casamento): 06 (0-0-2)
Tattersalls Stakes winner (Rerouted): 080 (0-0-3)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Champagne Stakes, finishing 233
2 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 10 winners ran in the Coventry Stakes, finishing 61
2 of 10 winners ran in the National Stakes, finishing 11
3yo Trials
Craven Stakes winner (Native Khan): 97160025 (1-1-8)
Greenham Stakes winner (Frankel): 630662 (0-2-6)
Trainers
Irish trained runners (6-4-32) have won the race 6 times since 2001.
Aidan O’Brien (4-1-25) has trained 4 winners of the race in the past 10 years including 3 of the last 6.
Barry Hills (1-1-8) and Michael Stoute (1-0-10) are the only other 2 trainers with entrants, to have won it in past 10 years.
Richard Hannon (0-4-15), Jim Bolger (0-2-3) and David Elsworth (0-2-5) have all filled multiple places in the past decade.
Saeed Bin Suroor (0-1-17) last won the race in 1999 but has only seen 1 of his 17 runners make the frame in the past 10 years.
Price
7 of the last 10 winners have been priced between 9/2 and 11/1 but there have been a few upsets recently with 2 of the last 4 winners going off at 25/1 or bigger.
Favourites (1-3-10) have a poor recent record with just 1 winner in the last 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 7.50.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Sired by a group 1 over 1M that finished in first 4 in a 2000 Guineas
· Born before 07/04/2008
· Won on racecourse debut & posted RPR of 86+
· Run at least 3 times (or unbeaten)
· Finished in the first 3 last time & posted highest RPR
· Having first run of the season (or won a Guineas trial)
· Won a group race
· Won the National Stakes
· Won over 7F or 8F
· Trained in Ireland, especially by Aidan O’Brien
Frankel looks solid but maybe has a chink or two (maybe) have sided with Pathfork as the Harrington yard has done me some favours and Pathfork is a big raw colt who has the stamina and breeding to upset the apple cart. Notes after the run in the national stakes ;-
A first win at Group 1 level for trainer Jessica Harrington and jockey Fran Berry with PATHFORK retaining his unbeaten record and following up his win in the Group 2 Futurity Stakes over course and trip last month with a game victory on very different ground to last time.
The official description was changed to soft after the first race. In the immediate aftermath of the race Harrington was uncertain whether the winner, who fully justified the decision to supplement him at a cost of Euro 20,000 will run again this season, while Berry reported that the colt "never enjoyed the soft ground at any stage".
Ridden prominently as had been the case on his previous start, Pathfork went to the front just over 2f out and, while the runner-up Casemento came back at him in the closing stages, he stuck to his task and held on in a photo-finish. With conditions less than ideal for him, he remains an exacting prospect for next year and a genuine contender for the 2,000 Guineas, for which he is now 10-1 with Ladbrokes and William Hill (from 14 and 12 respectively. He remains 12-1 with Paddy Power for the Newmarket Classic.
You cannot overlook the chances of Casemento either his win at Doncaster over a mile This final Group 1 of the domestic season has a rich history and, while the past three runnings proved to be something of a red herring, three previous winners of the race in the past decade went on to taste Classic success.
It was a mixed bunch in attendance this year and there was a very strong Irish challenge. They raced down the centre of the track and there was just an average early pace on. Things began to get serious nearing the three-furlong marker and the first pair dominated throughout the final 2f, making their efforts more towards the stands´ side late on. Strong form.
CASAMENTO, who was supplemented for the race, made it three wins from four career outings with a game display on his return to the top level, completing the task witha fair amount left in the tank, and gave his trainer a first winner in class. He didn´t need to his best when coming home a clear-cut winner in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes over this trip at the Curragh in September - the same race that last year´s stunning winner St Nicholas Abbey landed before coming here - and his short-head defeat to the unbeaten Pathfork in the National Stakes over 7f at the same venue earlier that month made him the clear form pick in this field. Frankie Dettori was aboard for thisBritish debut and he delivered him to lead nearing 2f out. Seville threw down a strong challenge at the furlong marker and looked a big danger, but the winner was probably idling somewhat as he picked up again to assert his authority nearing the finish.
The official description was changed to soft after the first race. In the immediate aftermath of the race Harrington was uncertain whether the winner, who fully justified the decision to supplement him at a cost of Euro 20,000 will run again this season, while Berry reported that the colt "never enjoyed the soft ground at any stage".
Ridden prominently as had been the case on his previous start, Pathfork went to the front just over 2f out and, while the runner-up Casemento came back at him in the closing stages, he stuck to his task and held on in a photo-finish. With conditions less than ideal for him, he remains an exacting prospect for next year and a genuine contender for the 2,000 Guineas, for which he is now 10-1 with Ladbrokes and William Hill (from 14 and 12 respectively. He remains 12-1 with Paddy Power for the Newmarket Classic.
You cannot overlook the chances of Casemento either his win at Doncaster over a mile This final Group 1 of the domestic season has a rich history and, while the past three runnings proved to be something of a red herring, three previous winners of the race in the past decade went on to taste Classic success.
It was a mixed bunch in attendance this year and there was a very strong Irish challenge. They raced down the centre of the track and there was just an average early pace on. Things began to get serious nearing the three-furlong marker and the first pair dominated throughout the final 2f, making their efforts more towards the stands´ side late on. Strong form.
CASAMENTO, who was supplemented for the race, made it three wins from four career outings with a game display on his return to the top level, completing the task witha fair amount left in the tank, and gave his trainer a first winner in class. He didn´t need to his best when coming home a clear-cut winner in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes over this trip at the Curragh in September - the same race that last year´s stunning winner St Nicholas Abbey landed before coming here - and his short-head defeat to the unbeaten Pathfork in the National Stakes over 7f at the same venue earlier that month made him the clear form pick in this field. Frankie Dettori was aboard for thisBritish debut and he delivered him to lead nearing 2f out. Seville threw down a strong challenge at the furlong marker and looked a big danger, but the winner was probably idling somewhat as he picked up again to assert his authority nearing the finish.
Bob
Wednesday 27 April 2011
Perth Festival -( from Bens Blog) and Sagaro Stakes Ascot 270411
At the past 5 Perth April festival's (2006 - 2010) there have only been THREE winners priced at 20-1 or bigger; 1 at 20-1, 1 at 25-1 and 1 at 33-1.
So from the 99 winners at the festival over the past 5 seasons only 3 have started at 20-1 or bigger. On the win side at least the outsiders really are 'the outsiders'. Without digging into it in great detail I would assume the bigger priced horses come from the smaller yards and they really struggle to match the firepower of the bigger yards that tend to make the journey north for this 3 day extravaganza.
sign into his blog for the Telling Stats
And another site -http://www.richardhannonracing.tv/news.php
Hannon wrote the following --- Ascot today The Queen's Free Agent runs in the Sagaro Stakes. He was caught on the line by The Betchworth Kid in the Further Flight Stakes at Nottingham, but the winner had been hurdling and was probably a bit fitter than we were, so we go there hopeful of revenge. If Free Agent wins we will have to think about the Royal meeting, though whether it is the Gold Cup or something else we'll see.
Free Agent was nutted on the post last time and both Akmal and Askar Tau ran absolute stormers as well - at least as both Free Agent and Betchworth kid - this is going to be some race now upped to 2miles from that 1m6f the ground will favour Akmal and Askar Tau more than the others
Past winners favour the lower weights with more winners below 9-0 stone
AGE | WGT | SP | TRAINER | JOCKEY | |
7 | 9-1 | 16/1 | |||
4 | 8-11 | 2/5F | |||
5 | 9-1 | 4/1 | |||
6 | 9-0 | 9/2 | |||
9 | 9-2 | 4/1 | |||
10 | 8-13 | 5/1 | |||
4 | 8-12 | 11/2 | |||
8 | 8-13 | 7/2 | |||
5 | 8-12 | 8/1 | |||
7 | 8-12 | 20/1 | good luck today | ||
Tuesday 26 April 2011
Tuesday 26th April -- oops
Richest race today is the bumper at Fairyhouse 7.05 and that says it all really
having said that it is a very good bumper that will have some decent horses coming from it to follow through the next couple of years.
Tizzard takes Theatre Guide over but not ridden today by Joe - was very green when it won at Chepstow in soft ground but won it impressively is a half brother to Cue Card who did win a hdle on good ground as well as you liked Timeform says: King's Theatre gelding who fetched €95,000 as a 3-y-o. Built on promising debut when winning above-average race at Chepstow in April and capable of better as he gains in experience. The one to beat.
Well I have one to beat it in Sarsfield's Ride is a gelding by Generous Timeform says: Bred more for stamina than speed but still impressed with the way he went through the race when third at Gowran on debut, form that gives him leading claims here.
Vfb time for that race makes the run pretty impressive and can only come on for it- Harrington on her own patch is a formidable trainer.
3.50 Exter and they have found a race for Bollywood who is a bit of a character (not quite a dodgepot) its last couple of runs have shown its well being and have him marked down to wait for a 3mile race on this ground - and today at prob the top of his form has got it.
Good luck today
Bob
having said that it is a very good bumper that will have some decent horses coming from it to follow through the next couple of years.
Tizzard takes Theatre Guide over but not ridden today by Joe - was very green when it won at Chepstow in soft ground but won it impressively is a half brother to Cue Card who did win a hdle on good ground as well as you liked Timeform says: King's Theatre gelding who fetched €95,000 as a 3-y-o. Built on promising debut when winning above-average race at Chepstow in April and capable of better as he gains in experience. The one to beat.
Well I have one to beat it in Sarsfield's Ride is a gelding by Generous Timeform says: Bred more for stamina than speed but still impressed with the way he went through the race when third at Gowran on debut, form that gives him leading claims here.
Vfb time for that race makes the run pretty impressive and can only come on for it- Harrington on her own patch is a formidable trainer.
3.50 Exter and they have found a race for Bollywood who is a bit of a character (not quite a dodgepot) its last couple of runs have shown its well being and have him marked down to wait for a 3mile race on this ground - and today at prob the top of his form has got it.
Good luck today
Bob
Monday 25 April 2011
5.30 Fairyhouse hot news 240411
Low-down on Fenton duo
This day last year was a winning one for trainer Philip Fenton, who saddled Last Instalment to win the Irish Racing Post Champion Point-to-point Bumper.
Today he saddles two in hope of a repeat. First up isCaim Hill in the Ladbrokes Irish Grand National, quickly followed by Kilflora in the novice handicap chase.
He said: "Caim Hill had a really bad fall at Clonmel back in 2009 which seemed to stick in his mind when reappearing at Thurles in February so we decided to give him a few runs over hurdles to try and get his confidence back.
"Kiflora is in great form at home and we've had this race in mind for him since he won well at Thurles last time and stayed on really well. The ground and trip should be perfect for him.
Bob"
Irish national - numerical representation of trend stats April 2011
TOTAL name and weight
48 Quantitativeeasing 10-9 If going off fav reduce by 10 2nd Back in the limelight with What A Charm at Cheltenham, Arthur Moore did it again with ORGANISEDCONFUSION, who became the first six-year-old to win the race since Rhyme ´N Reason in 1985. It was a victory that adds further substance to an outstanding family tradition in the race.
A good run when third in the Leopardstown Chase provided a strong hint that Organisedconfusion was developing into a promising stayer, and Moore continued his preparations with two outings over much shorter trips, resulting in a win in a conditions chase and a near-miss over hurdles that applied the finishing touches.
Stamina never looked like being a problem, and having hit the front between the last two, he got some help from the company of a loose horse in staying on strongly from the final fence.
As Moore observed, he is not going to be an easy horse to place after this, but with relative youth on his side there is a realistic chance that there will be more big days for him in the future.
A good run when third in the Leopardstown Chase provided a strong hint that Organisedconfusion was developing into a promising stayer, and Moore continued his preparations with two outings over much shorter trips, resulting in a win in a conditions chase and a near-miss over hurdles that applied the finishing touches.
Stamina never looked like being a problem, and having hit the front between the last two, he got some help from the company of a loose horse in staying on strongly from the final fence.
As Moore observed, he is not going to be an easy horse to place after this, but with relative youth on his side there is a realistic chance that there will be more big days for him in the future.
33 Sunnyhillboy 10-6 3rd - There was good support for Sunnyhillboy, a former smart handicap hurdler who has been quite sparingly raced since finishing second in last year´s Byrne Group Plate at Cheltenham. Recovering after meeting interference four out, he kept on best of the McManus runners.
55 Western Charmer 10-6 2nd - Western Charmer is three years older than the winner, but this was a cracking effort by the second-season novice competing in his first handicap chase. He was ridden in touch with the pace set by one of his stablemates and maintained his effort in game fashion after a brief spell in the lead.
57 Prince Erik 10-5 if going off fav reduce by 10
34 Sebadee 10-0
59 Organisedconfusion 9-13 had a hdles run last time and worthy of a bet
66 Ambobo 9-11
57 Pomme Tiepy 9-10 NR
60 Beautiful Sound 9-10 NR
67 Hold The Pin 9-10 NR
will be able to see if these weightings are relevant and that the point of the exercise really - have only done this once before and If had followed them instead of instinct would have backed the winner of the 365 on Saturday !
Result - Organisedconfusion
Result - Organisedconfusion
Irish Grand National
I like the chances of your horse Bob, and the new trend of running over hurdles does appear to be a good one, however, I am going for the definite stayer, Synchronised which doesn't fit the trends at all :) I realise the horse needs some cut in the ground, but this horse will gallop forever. I will have a saver bet on Some Target though
Irish Grand National 25th April 2011
Irish Grand National Day at Fairyhouse The race happens much later than usual this year, which means there’s a greater gap between it and its Aintree equivalent, and that could mean we see a few more runners make the journey over.
Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
· Irish or French bred
· Aged 6 to 9 (ideally 7 or 8)
· Carrying 10-8 or less
· Officially rated 125 to 136
· Won over 3M+
· Run at least twice this season & run in the past 50 days
· Won at a right-handed track
· Run in 6 to 13 chases (winning 2 to 4)
· Contested no more than 9 handicap chases
· Won a class 2 or higher chase worth 19K+
· Ran in this season’s Paddy Power Handicap Chase
· Finished in first 4 in last season’s Hugh McMahon Novice Chase
· Had first run in a bumper/hurdle/point to point
· Trained in Great Britain
· Trained by D T Hughes, A J Martin, O McKiernan or M Hourigan
Price
It has been a race for outsiders recently with 5 of the last 7 winners being sent off between 20/1 and 33/1.
Favourites (0-2-12) have gained no wins and just 2 places in the past 10 years, giving a level stakes loss of 10.00.
Love this race for calling up big price winners and am going for a trend we have seen so much this year in a horse coming here with the right credentials that has been hurdling to keep its handicap mark down
that horse is Caim Hill - Previous season's Hugh McMahon Chase winner has had three runs over hdles this year 2 wins over right handed tracks and value in its first handicap at 136 which it has already achieved over 3miles on good ground and 23k on soft - Won five bumper/hurdle races in a row earlier in career; and chases around this time last year shaping with promise at Gowran latest; been nibbled at in market blinkers tried first time.
Bob
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