Friday 31 December 2010

Crunch Day VFB naps table for December 2010

Forgive me for being more interested in the Vfb naps table with so many in it and the lurkers are in command methinks -  am turning my attention to Warwick and the 2.20 (forecast soft ground) and a cracking 3mile chase
 top of the market is McCoy on the filly Rate Of Knots and Mr Big under Peter Toole  - it should be a fast run race and both animals are in my book with loads of notes on praising them for the distance and ground - they met last time at Towcester over 2m6f both behind Bobby Gee and both will improve for the run.
 Am making up my mind on these two and which I shall nap with the preference for the gelding at this moment. I love Mr Big for one of the most honest jumpers in handicaps and think his time has come - has better for right handed but won well at Chepstow (which is an easy track for a right hander) and this extra distance will play to his strengths Toole is a claimer plus and the horse can give me the edge - Warwick has some of the same characteristics as Chepstow without the climb to the line and that will suite Mr Big Well. 


 already posted up on the board is Annimation (2.50 Warwick) who also has a lot going for her and will carry some of my money today. This filly could easily take the napster to the top of the table 
 good luck all - this is what the Vfb is all about on the last day of the month


Result - yippeeeeeee

Mr Big 5/1
Rate Of Knots 11/4 

Arnold Layne 5/1 
10 ran Distances: hd, 15l, 3½l
TIME 6m 24.10s (slow by 22.10s)
Jockey: Peter Toole
Trainer: C J Mann
WIN £5.60 PL £1.70, £1.50, £2.10
Ex £14.00
CSF £19.88

Thursday 30 December 2010

standing for the top 10 in the naps table Vfb

I Dont think I can remember such a close finish with two days racing to go - its anyone's race at this stage and to be honest Taunton is my voodoo track - though am publishing the top 10 places only the guys behind are not out of it at all 
 Looking through the Vfb does not install any confidence in me  but have to put one up and am probably going to Ireland for my winner good luck everyone (including myself !)

Standings December 2010
Tipster Wins Runs Strike LSP POE
roberttaylor03 2 6 33% +8.75 +145%
JohnB 6 11 54% +8.73 +79%
John 3 10 30% +7.50 +75%
SELECTTIPS 5 13 38% +5.83 +44%
PJC 1 1 100% +2.75 +275%
MichaelH 2 7 28% -0.42 -6%
diamondperth 0 2 0% -2.00 -100%
MartinL 0 3 0% -3.00 -100%
JohnC 5 23 21% -3.96 -17%
Cornalba 1 9 11% -4.00 -44%
MarkS 0 4 0% -4.00 -100% 

yesterday review newbury 291210

Well you could not see a lot on the replays  because of the fog but a good card and Selecttips  got his Backspin home at 5/1 not sure how good the form is but worth noting this race was won by Denman in the past and this years Hennessey winner Diamond Harry so its win has to be a notebook entry.
 John B had a corker of a winner in  Ghizao The visibility for this contest was really poor, and it was difficult to see anything. The winning rider described the going as testing afterwards, while Tony McCoy stated it was dead and hard work. This isn´t a race that has produced an Arkle winner in recent years but Ghizao lept the the top of the Arkle market with an emphatic win.


The long walk produced no surprises in Big Bucks who simply did the business under McCoy (how does this guy simply shrug off falls? )  


 the Bumper was hard to gauge and a 50/1 winner in African Broadway might well be discounted but - was the subject of a stable tour comment from Pipe  showed promise in a couple of Irish points in April (still in the lead when falling on the first occasion and narrowly beaten the second time). he came home a wide-margin winner from what looked a decent field. Johnny Farrelly reported afterwards that his mount is a stayer in the making, and he was pleased how he stuck to the task while being on his own down the home straight.

Wednesday 29 December 2010

Now your cooking! VFB naps table

wow two days to go and only 2p between the top two tipsters - the rest are well not out of it either!
 There is still some racing tonight at kempton so we wont know till the morning what the state of play is but its the closest nap table ever for the Vfb. 

The Paddypowerpoker.com Future Champion Novice Hurdle bobT

The Paddypowerpoker.com Future Champion Novice Hurdle is one of two grade 1 races that takes place at Leopardstown on the second day of the Christmas Festival (December 29th). It has been won by some top class hurdlers in the past decade, including Solerina and Hurricane Fly, and whatever wins will come into the reckoning for one of the novice hurdles at Cheltenham.
 dont have time to do all the trends today but here is the summary



All 10 winners were aged 4 or 5 but 4yos (who receive a 3lb allowance) have by the far the superior record having won 7 of 10 & 5 of last 6. 2 of 3 winners aged 5 were mares, who also receive a weight allowance.
Price
8 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
2 of the last 3 winners have been priced 20/1 and 25/1.
The favourite (3-3-11) has won 3 of the last 10 renewals and show a level stakes loss of 4.56.

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
  • Won last time out or finished in the first 3 in Royal Bond
  • Never finished outside the first 3 over hurdles
  • Ran in the last 35 days
  • Won a bumper or ran in group/listed race on flat
  • Trained by Eddie O’Grady, Noel Meade or Willie Mullins

    Think that this is the most difficult on the card today and am keeping my eye open for the punt that usually comes with this race with an eye on Hangover and  Beautiful Sound



The Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase trends BobT


The Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase, which takes place at Leopardstown on the 29th December, became a grade 1 event in 2007 and run over 2M 1F it will attract some of the main Irish hopefuls for the 2011 Queen Mother Champion Chase.
Below we take a look at the trends for the last 10 years:
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-0-2
7yo: 4-4-19
8yo: 3-2-17
9yo: 2-2-10
10yo+: 0-1-11
No very strong age trends though all 10 winners were aged 6 to 9 but they have represented the bulk of the runners.

Gender
Both mares (0-0-2) to run in the race in the past decade finished last, well-behind the nearest finisher.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed start (7 won)
9 of 10 winners were course winners (exception Big Zeb had finished 2nd in a grade 1 chase in only previous completed course start)
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 3 times that season
8 of 10 winners had run in the past 30 days
9 of 10 winners (last 9) had previously run in 6 to 15 chases
9 of 10 winners (last 9) were second or third season chasers
8 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase (2 exceptions won grade 2)
7 of 10 winners won a chase at a previous Leopardstown Festival

Other Races
Previous Year's Winner (Golden Silver): 4213324 (1-2-7)
Ryanair Novice Chase winner (Captain Cee Bee): 211 (2-1-3)
Fortria Chase winner (Big Zeb): P1312 (2-1-5)
Hilly Way Chase winner (Golden Silver): 21431 (2-0-5)
Tied Cottage Chase winner (Big Zeb): 124227 (1-2-6)
Poplar Square Chase winner (Captain Cee Bee): 21432 (1-1-5)
Punchestown Champion Chase (Golden Silver) 1 (1-0-1)
Queen Mother Champion Chase winner (Big Zeb): 14 (1-0-2)
Normans Grove Chase winner (Scotsirish): 5327 (0-1-4)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Hilly Way Chase last time, finishing 312
3 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan last time, finishing 142
4 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Arkle, finishing F2P1
3 of 10 winners ran in Bord Na Mona Novice Chase, finishing 111
3 of 10 winners ran in the Fortria, finishing 131

3 of 10 winners ran in the Ladbrokes.com Chase, finishing 315
3 of 10 winners ran in the Newlands Chase, finishing 422
3 of 10 winners ran in the Arkle, finishing 1U0
3 of 10 winners ran in the Powers Gold Cup, finishing 427

Trainers
Colm Murphy (1-0-1) won the race with Big Zeb in 2008 and Willie Mullins (1-0-4) won it last year with Golden Silver, and both horses are entered again this year.

Price
10 of 10 winners went off at 8/1 or shorter
Not a race to be looking for an outsider with all 10 winners coming from the first 4 in the betting.
Favourites (4-3-11) have won 4 of the last 10 runnings and showing a level stakes loss of 3.77.

Conclusion:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
  • Aged 6 to 9
  • Finished in the first 3 last time out in last 30 days
  • Had run no more than 3 times this season
  • Second or third season chaser
  • Won a chase at a previous Leopardstown Christmas Festival
  • Won a Grade 1 chase
  • Ran in the Irish Arkle, Powers Gold Cup and/or Fortria Chase
  • Ran in the John Durkan or Hilly Way Chase last time
  • Priced 8/1 or shorter


    my Money is on Golden Silver who needs this heavy ground to show its best beat home forpaddyplasterer in a head bobber around here and is more race fit than the rest

The Leopardstown Golf Centre December Festival Hurdle BobT

The Leopardstown Golf Centre December Festival Hurdle is the highlight of what is now the third day of the Leopardstown Christmas Festival, on Wednesday 29th December. A grade 1 hurdle, run over 2 miles, it attracts the top Irish hopes for the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle and has been won by the likes of Istabraq, Moscow Flyer, Brave Inca and Sublimity in the past 10 years.
Age (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses aged 4 to 6 have a combined record of 4-5-35.
Horses aged 7+ have a combined record of 6-5-26 and have won 4 of last 5.
Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in first 3 on last completed hurdles start
10 of 10 winners had run no more than 3 hurdles runs that season
8 of 10 winners contested a grade 1 hurdle last time out
8 of 10 winners (last 5) had won a grade 1 hurdle
8 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 in a hurdle at Leopardstown before (2 exceptions were having first course start)

Other Races
Previous Year's winner (Solwhit): F412 (1-1-4)
Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Hurricane Fly): 1311 (3-0-4)
Morgiana Hurdle winner (Solwhit): 1512381 (3-0-7)
Irish Champion Hurdle winner (Solwhit): F14125 (2-1-6)
Red Mills Trial Hurdle winner (Luska Lad): 51 (1-0-2)
Hatton's Grace winner (Hurricane Fly): 441 (1-0-3)
6 of 10 winners ran in the Morgiana, finishing 123131
5 of 10 winners ran in Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing F1221
4 of 10 winners ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing 1221
4 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle, finishing FU11
4 of 10 winners ran in the Champion Hurdle, finishing 9314
4 of 10 winners ran in the previous year's race, finishing FF14
3 of 10 winners (last 3) ran in Fighting Fifth last time, finishing 223
3 of 10 winners ran in the Hatton’s Grace last time, finishing 231


Trainers
Charles Byrnes (1-0-1) saddled Solwhit to win the race last year.
Price
8 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
Only one winner went off bigger than 7/1 and that was Golden Cross, who won the race in 2003 at massive odds of 66/1.
The favourite (3-1-10) has a poor record in this race having won only 3 of the last 10 renewals and showing a level stakes loss of 4.60.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
  • Finished in the first 3 in a grade 1 last time out
  • Ran no more than 3 times this season
  • Won a grade 1 hurdle
  • Previously finished 1st or 2nd over the course and distance
  • Finished in first 3 in Fighting Fifth/Hatton’s Grace Hurdle last time
  • Finished in first 3 in Morgiana, Irish or Punchestown Champ Hurdle
  • From the first 3 in the betting

    Slight Preference for Hurricane Fly who comprehensibly  beat home Solwhit (who was race fit last time) and Dont discount the outsider Thousand Stars  who was only 2l behind Solwhit when they met in April when Hurricane Fly won - will be inclined to bet forecast top two with this one who has been off for 250 days and hence the price but Katie Walsh has booted home some big price winners !

title up for grabs 29th December My selection

Am torn on what to do do do -- Really feel that its make or break time with three days to go - nearest Pursuer has given me a chance to put one up today  as his failed yesterday and has dropped from 25p behind to £1.25 behind..
I am following Nick Williams and Daryl Jacobs with For Non Stop (2.10 Newbury) currently 7/2 second favourite - really do have to say its his biggest challenge today against the likes of Al Ferof who ran second to Cue Card in  the Cheltenham bumper ( fell when go so easy in its hdles race last time at 4/7 fav just a silly mistake really.) 
For Non Stop can add Williams record for the race 3 winners in the last 10 years - has even come into the race with similar preparation as his previous winners - was so impressed with its win at chepstow over 2m 4f simply bounding away from the field having made some novice errors early  and at the third last - the field trailed him as soon as Jacobs said go - similar race at Cheltenham where he went second to Grands Cruz who really is a class act  who came out and winning again at Haydock over 3miles)
 Do Not expect the 7/2 to hold up for very long so have gone in already and in all probaility my only bet of the day all on


 Good luck today guys 

Tuesday 28 December 2010

29th December - Exciting Stuff

Typically on a day when Big Bucks, Puchestowns, Big Zeb, Solwit and pals are running I'm stuck in Norfolk without Sky.......

Lots of fantastic racing but my nap will be Ghizao in the 12.00 at Newbury. Its performance was outstanding at Cheltenham in November when it beat Captain Chris going away up the hill at Cheltenham. It has top speed & MR ratings.......downside carries now 10lb more.....but its past performance would suggest Ghizao will carry this.

Interesting French horse Surfing.......has won over French jumps and is out of the Henderson yard with McCoy so could be anything......French form in RP not really very informative.

Monday 27 December 2010

southwell on - 4 days racing to go

6:53am  Weather note

Temperatures were above freezing at midnight last night. 6:42am  Early info The going is standard to slow - officials started rolling the track at 3.30am - and the first of today's seven races is at 12.10.
 well its me with the "lucky"? rabbit foot today
Have looked through the card and cant for the life of me see a stand out bet  - the slow bit in the going report  looks unpromising but my nearest rival has only to find an even money shot - I cant  put one up before he does and the lurkers are still in with a shout so its going to be interesting to say the least. (bloody AW)
 Ffos Las looks probable on Tuesday and Newbury the same for Wednesday with a big plus from the track at Taunton for Thursday cards  so will be saving my powder for them but think this months 10 week bonus prize will go right to the wire ! 
  
 Today am interested in the chances of Mazovian in the first- dropped back to 6flngs  and that's about it - the rest are even more iffy than a one eyed cat with a head cold

 Good luck today guys  
 Bobt


what a rubbish way to spend the afternoon watching the other guys naps running - did not back Mazovian  but did have a punt on  the 3.35 EL DECECY  who was never seriously challenged, and made the most of a soft lead to defy a 2lb higher mark but in a very slow time!

Sunday 26 December 2010

happy boxing day - Fontwell Off !

Officials had planned an 8am inspection on today, but lows of -9C last night night determined matters earlier on.
Speaking at 6.30am today, clerk of the course Edward Arkell said: "The track's frozen solid under the covers.
"We thought we might struggle with -5C or-6C, but we had no chance with -9C.
"It's very disappointing especially as everyone has worked so hard."

Friday 24 December 2010

King George

Hi Bob

How do 6 year olds fare in the King George?

Happy Christmas all _ BobT

The weather outside is frightful - the fire looks so delightful
 only the AW looks set to go -
bugger snow bugger snow bugger snow
 Happy Christmas all. Racing isn't everything (and that's about all the philosophy you will get from me.)

 Hope you are set for a good time with families and friends that you will be frost free happy and look forwards to the good time ahead   -
Happy Christmas from   Pam Steve Marie lil Dawn and yours truly

Thursday 23 December 2010

welsh National -- OFFF

CHEPSTOW'S Coral Welsh National meeting - due to be staged on Monday - will now be run on Saturday, January 8 after the track was deemed unfit for racing on Thursday.

Kempton to look again on Friday Some thoughts for argument

Kauto StarFingers Crossed King George VI Chase at Kempton is the big race of the day. It has been won by many of the greatest steeplechasers in history and in the last decade champions such as Best Mate, Kicking King and Kauto Star. This year Kauto Star is attempting to surpass the great Desert Orchid (who was 11 years old when he won it for the 4th time)
So Can Kauto and win the race for the fifth time ? 10 left in as of today
In the last 4 seasons Not one 10 year old has won at this meeting from 26 entries So is Kauto up to it? at the price offered he is def a lay proposition in my book
 Was NOT impressed with his run at Down Royal in the jwine handicap where Sizing Europe (who is NOT a true 3miler) was only beaten on the run in with Kauto being driven out from the last fence) - look back to the same race a year before and he romped home against what could be considered a better field
Burton Port, What A Friend and Noland were the three defectors at Thursday's final declaration stage.
Nicky Henderson will still be represented by second favourite Long Run and Riverside Theatre while Nicholls will saddle The Nightingale (Sam Thomas) as his second string.
The others are Forpadydeplasterer, Nacarat,
 Sizing Europe, Planet Of Sound,
 Madison Du Berlais and Ollie Magern
 so what do you think guys?

interesting post martin - here are some ideas for a bet


Top 10 weird bets

1. Poker face
A contender for the strangest ever ‘poker’ game came in 1784 in Spalding, Lincolnshire, when a man in a local inn bet his fellow drinkers that he could carry a red-hot poker between his teeth as far as the obelisk in the market place and back again.

According to the Leeds Intelligencer of June 1784, the man won his bet – but died “in great agonies” the following day.
 
2. Man boobsDuring the late 1990s Canadian gambler Brian Zembic won a $100,000 bet with a professional backgammon player by having breast implants, which he had to leave in place for one year.

The false breasts cost Zembic $4,000 while the operation confined him to his bed for a fortnight.
 
3. Look – no hands
Irish poker player Nicky Power once won a no-limit Texas Hold’em pot despite having no cards in his hand.

Sitting in the big blind position, Power went all-in after the player on the small blind raised and all the other players had folded. He then realised the dealer had swept all his cards into the muck with the folded hands.

Fortunately his opponent hadn’t noticed and folded, leaving Power to win the pot.
 
4. Sleeping aroundIn 1994 a Baltimore, Maryland, man called Ray Ladwell won a $1 million bet by sleeping with a different woman every day for a year.

The 39-year-old celebrated by taking a round-the-world holiday – alone.
 
5. No peekingNorwegian poker star Annette Obrestad once won a 180-player sit-and-go internet tournament without once looking at her cards.

Obrestad, the first woman to win a World Series of Poker main event, played the sit-and-go according to table position and her reading of her online opponents – and won the tournament.
 
6. Put your house on itWycombe man Chris Boyd sold his house in 1994 and took the proceeds to Las Vegas. He bet the lot on one turn of the roulette wheel, staking everything on red.

The ball landed in red, and Boyd came straight home, having doubled his money.
 
7. Clocking inIn 1992 pub landlord Richard Connolly celebrated his 23rd birthday on 23rd September by staking £23 on number 23 at 23 minutes past 11pm – or 23:23 – at an Isle of Man casino. The number came up, winning Connolly £805.

A similar occurrence came in 1995 when Robert Edge turned 24. He bet £24 on number 24 at 24 minutes past midnight (or the 24th hour) and won £840.
 
8. Bookies’ runnerDavid Bedford – a man who would later claim to be the inspiration for TV advertising’s 118 runners – once bet someone £250 that he could run the London marathon.

Not such a strange bet, perhaps, seeing as Bedford was one of the UK’s best-known long-distance runners at the time – except the bet was struck in a Luton nightclub while Bedford was drunk, and the race was later that day.

Bedford completed the race despite throwing up en route – but never saw the man he’d bet with again.
 
9. Medium goes largeClairvoyant Francine Hodges once bet £50 at odds of 25/1 that she would lose six stone within six months.

After the six months had passed, it was found that the 16st 13lb medium had actually put weight on.
 
10. Water versus wineIn 1814 two London gentlemen placed a bet on which of them would win a drinking contest in which one of them drank only wine and the other drank only water.

Perhaps surprisingly, the wine drinker won the bet, while the water drinker became ill with gout and was confined to bed.